Tianjin Teda 1-0 Guangzhou R&F – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tianjin Teda at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Guangzhou R&F travel to Mission Hills Football Base Stadium to take on Tianjin Teda. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 30 November 2022, 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Tianjin Teda have gone 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Tianjin Teda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Tianjin Teda have posted 5W 1D 4L at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guangzhou R&F stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou R&F, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guangzhou R&F's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Tianjin Teda are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Tianjin Teda, 1 for Guangzhou R&F and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 0–2 with Guangzhou R&F winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Tianjin Teda trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Guangzhou R&F trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tianjin Teda 53% versus Guangzhou R&F 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tianjin Teda 47% | Guangzhou R&F 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tianjin Teda 1.88 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tianjin Teda attack 1.100 / defence 0.773 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.729 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.508 / away 1.384. Tianjin Teda's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Tianjin Teda games / 41 Guangzhou R&F games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 63% | Draw 23% | Guangzhou R&F 14%. Fair-value odds: Tianjin Teda 1.59 | Draw 4.35 | Guangzhou R&F 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Tianjin Teda (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tianjin Teda as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Tianjin Teda 50% | Guangzhou R&F 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Mission Hills Football Base Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 30 Nov 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tianjin Teda 63% | Draw 23% | Guangzhou R&F 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 47% | xG Tianjin Teda 1.88 / Guangzhou R&F 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Tianjin Teda attack 1.100 / def 0.773 | Guangzhou R&F attack 0.729 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.508 / away 1.384 • Poisson stance: Tianjin Teda (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Tianjin Teda xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Guangzhou R&F xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F kick off?
Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 30 November 2022 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What was the final score in Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Tianjin Teda 1 - 0 Guangzhou R&F.
Where is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F being played?
The match is being played at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium.
What competition is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F part of?
Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our statistical model gives Tianjin Teda a 63% chance of winning, Guangzhou R&F a 14% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tianjin Teda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F will score (BTTS).
Will Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F?
Record (1 meetings): Tianjin Teda 0W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou R&F 1W.
What form are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F in?
Tianjin Teda (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Guangzhou R&F (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Tianjin Teda's attack at 1.10x the league average against Guangzhou R&F's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Guangzhou R&F's attack versus Tianjin Teda's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tianjin Teda Win
63%
1.60
23%
4.34
14%
7.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Tianjin Teda xG
Total xG
2.66
0.78
Guangzhou R&F xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
7.02
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
2%
45.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 10.3 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Tianjin Teda and 0.78 for Guangzhou R&F, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tianjin Teda come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 11D 21L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Tianjin Teda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Guangzhou R&F sit at 0.84 PPG from 49 outings (10W 11D 28L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Guangzhou R&F is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Tianjin Teda carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Guangzhou R&F — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tianjin Teda's home form reads 9W 4D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Guangzhou R&F have taken 0.75 points per game from 24 outings (4W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tianjin Teda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tianjin Teda are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou R&F are on 1.04 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tianjin Teda
Blended
Guangzhou R&F
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F in coming into this match?
Tianjin Teda have gone 17W 11D 21L in their last 49 games (1.27 PPG), while Guangzhou R&F have gone 10W 11D 28L in their last 49 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tianjin Teda at home or Guangzhou R&F away?
Tianjin Teda's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tianjin Teda at home: 1.29 PPG; Guangzhou R&F away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Tianjin Teda
0
Draws
1
Guangzhou R&F
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F?
From 2 meetings on record, Tianjin Teda have won 1, Guangzhou R&F have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2022, when Tianjin Teda 1-0 Guangzhou R&F.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Tianjin Teda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Guangzhou R&F are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tianjin Teda 62%, Guangzhou R&F 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Tianjin Teda) and 38% (Guangzhou R&F).
On the defensive side: Guangzhou R&F in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tianjin Teda home games / Guangzhou R&F away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tianjin Teda play Guangzhou R&F?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Tianjin Teda's recent matches and 42% of Guangzhou R&F's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tianjin Teda vs Guangzhou R&F usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Tianjin Teda's recent games and 38% of Guangzhou R&F's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Tianjin Teda and Guangzhou R&F tend to score early?
Tianjin Teda have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Guangzhou R&F in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Tianjin Teda edge out Guangzhou R&F 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tianjin Teda beat Guangzhou R&F 1-0 at Mission Hills Football Base Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tianjin Teda 1.88 xG and Guangzhou R&F 0.78 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tianjin Teda fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tianjin Teda attack 1.10 / defence 0.77 against Guangzhou R&F attack 0.73 / defence 1.13, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tianjin Teda 63% | Draw 23% | Guangzhou R&F 14%, with Tianjin Teda to win its most likely call at 63%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tianjin Teda 47%, Guangzhou R&F 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tianjin Teda's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Guangzhou R&F's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Tianjin Teda arrived the stronger side — 1.27 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Tianjin Teda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.