Dalian Zhixing 1-0 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Henan Jianye at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Henan Jianye travel to Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium to take on Dalian Zhixing. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 16 April 2025, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Henan Jianye — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dalian Zhixing 1.12 xG and Henan Jianye 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.848 / defence 0.896 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / defence 0.778. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.539. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.778 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 6 Dalian Zhixing games / 35 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 37%. Fair-value odds: Dalian Zhixing 3.23 | Draw 3.12 | Henan Jianye 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Henan Jianye are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Henan Jianye offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 16 Apr 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Dalian Zhixing 1.12 / Henan Jianye 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Dalian Zhixing attack 0.848 / def 0.896 | Henan Jianye attack 0.903 / def 0.778 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.539 • Poisson stance: Henan Jianye (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Dalian Zhixing xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Henan Jianye xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Wednesday 16 April 2025 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Dalian Zhixing 1 - 0 Henan Jianye.
Where is Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium.
What competition is Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye part of?
Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Dalian Zhixing a 31% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Henan Jianye the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye in?
Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Henan Jianye away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dalian Zhixing's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Henan Jianye's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Henan Jianye's attack versus Dalian Zhixing's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Henan Jianye Win
31%
3.23
32%
3.12
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Dalian Zhixing xG
Total xG
2.37
1.25
Henan Jianye xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.3 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Dalian Zhixing and 1.25 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Dalian Zhixing vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dalian Zhixing
Pre-Season
Henan Jianye
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Aug 2025, when Henan Jianye won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dalian Zhixing's record when hosting Henan Jianye specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Dalian Zhixing
1
Draws
1
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye?
From 4 meetings on record, Dalian Zhixing have won 2, Henan Jianye have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Henan Jianye 1-1 Dalian Zhixing.
Who has won more matches between Dalian Zhixing and Henan Jianye?
Dalian Zhixing have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dalian Zhixing home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Dalian Zhixing defy the odds to beat Henan Jianye 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dalian Zhixing beat Henan Jianye 1-0 at Dalian Suoyuwan Football Stadium, Regular Season - 7, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dalian Zhixing 1.12 xG and Henan Jianye 1.25 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Henan Jianye landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dalian Zhixing attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Henan Jianye attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 6/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dalian Zhixing 31% | Draw 32% | Henan Jianye 37%, with Henan Jianye to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Dalian Zhixing win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.