Chengdu Better City 2-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Chengdu Better City at 75% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wuyuan River Stadium plays host to Chengdu Better City versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC in Super League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Thursday 1 December 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Chengdu Better City have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Chengdu Better City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Wuyuan River Stadium, Chengdu Better City have gone 5W 5D 0L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League this season, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Chengdu Better City's 2.00 PPG return is 1.60 points per game ahead of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Chengdu Better City, 0 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Chengdu Better City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Chengdu Better City — key trading statistics (29 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chengdu Better City 48% versus Guangzhou Evergrande FC 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chengdu Better City 45% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chengdu Better City 2.41 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chengdu Better City attack 1.279 / defence 0.843 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.600 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.412. Chengdu Better City carry an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — their λ of 2.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Guangzhou Evergrande FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing Chengdu Better City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Chengdu Better City games / 41 Guangzhou Evergrande FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 75% | Draw 17% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 9%. Fair-value odds: Chengdu Better City 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 11.11. The model has a clear lean to Chengdu Better City (75%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Chengdu Better City as the most likely outcome at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Chengdu Better City 70% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Wuyuan River Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Dec 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chengdu Better City 75% | Draw 17% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 47% | xG Chengdu Better City 2.41 / Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Chengdu Better City attack 1.279 / def 0.843 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.600 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Chengdu Better City (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Chengdu Better City xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
47%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kick off?
Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC kicked off at 11:00 on Thursday 1 December 2022 at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What was the final score in Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Chengdu Better City 2 - 0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Where is Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC being played?
The match is being played at Wuyuan River Stadium.
What competition is Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC part of?
Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our statistical model gives Chengdu Better City a 75% chance of winning, Guangzhou Evergrande FC a 9% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Chengdu Better City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC will score (BTTS).
Will Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Record (1 meetings): Chengdu Better City 1W | Draws 0 | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0W.
What form are Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in?
Chengdu Better City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Guangzhou Evergrande FC (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Chengdu Better City's attack at 1.28x the league average against Guangzhou Evergrande FC's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Guangzhou Evergrande FC's attack (0.60x) against Chengdu Better City's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 27/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chengdu Better City Win
75%
1.34
17%
6.01
9%
11.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
3 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Chengdu Better City xG
Total xG
3.13
0.71
Guangzhou Evergrande FC xG
1.34
75%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
11.43
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
9%
11.17
Win to Nil
37%
2.74
1%
127.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.8 | 9.1 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.3 | 7.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Chengdu Better City and 0.71 for Guangzhou Evergrande FC, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Chengdu Better City's recent record stands at 14W 10D 5L from 29 games, a 1.79 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Chengdu Better City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 19L across 29 games — 0.62 PPG, with D-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Guangzhou Evergrande FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Chengdu Better City by 1.17 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Guangzhou Evergrande FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Chengdu Better City have managed 5W 7D 1L from 13 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's away record stands at 1W 2D 10L across 13 trips, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Chengdu Better City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Chengdu Better City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Guangzhou Evergrande FC are on 0.76 scored and 1.72 conceded.
Defensively: Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 29 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chengdu Better City
Blended
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC in coming into this match?
Chengdu Better City have gone 14W 10D 5L in their last 29 games (1.79 PPG), while Guangzhou Evergrande FC have gone 4W 6D 19L in their last 29 (0.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chengdu Better City at home or Guangzhou Evergrande FC away?
Chengdu Better City's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chengdu Better City at home: 1.69 PPG; Guangzhou Evergrande FC away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Chengdu Better City or Guangzhou Evergrande FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chengdu Better City have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Chengdu Better City
0
Draws
0
Guangzhou Evergrande FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
From 2 meetings on record, Chengdu Better City have won 2, Guangzhou Evergrande FC have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 December 2022, when Chengdu Better City 2-0 Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
Who has won more matches between Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Chengdu Better City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Chengdu Better City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chengdu Better City 69%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Chengdu Better City) and 54% (Guangzhou Evergrande FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Chengdu Better City keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chengdu Better City home games / Guangzhou Evergrande FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chengdu Better City play Guangzhou Evergrande FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Chengdu Better City's games and 46% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Chengdu Better City vs Guangzhou Evergrande FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Chengdu Better City's matches and 54% of Guangzhou Evergrande FC's.
Do Chengdu Better City and Guangzhou Evergrande FC tend to score early?
Chengdu Better City have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Guangzhou Evergrande FC in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chengdu Better City cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Guangzhou Evergrande FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chengdu Better City beat Guangzhou Evergrande FC 2-0 at Wuyuan River Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chengdu Better City 2.41 xG and Guangzhou Evergrande FC 0.71 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chengdu Better City attack 1.28 / defence 0.84 against Guangzhou Evergrande FC attack 0.60 / defence 1.26, drawn from 27/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chengdu Better City 75% | Draw 17% | Guangzhou Evergrande FC 9%, with Chengdu Better City to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chengdu Better City 45%, Guangzhou Evergrande FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chengdu Better City's trading profile (29 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Guangzhou Evergrande FC's trading profile (29 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Chengdu Better City arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.62. Form held, and they took the win. Chengdu Better City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.