Changchun Yatai 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu meet at Development Area Stadium in Super League, Regular Season - 22. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Changchun Yatai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Development Area Stadium, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Sichuan Jiuniu (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Super League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.70. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sichuan Jiuniu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Changchun Yatai, 0.60 for Sichuan Jiuniu — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Changchun Yatai, 2 for Sichuan Jiuniu and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2025, ended 1–3 with Sichuan Jiuniu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Sichuan Jiuniu — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 59% versus Sichuan Jiuniu 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 63% | Sichuan Jiuniu 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.61 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.658 / defence 1.002 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.667 / defence 1.427. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.376. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.658 is below the league average — the 1.61 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sichuan Jiuniu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.427 — this is suppressing Changchun Yatai's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Changchun Yatai games / 51 Sichuan Jiuniu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 52% | Draw 29% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Sichuan Jiuniu 5.00. Changchun Yatai hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Changchun Yatai are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Sichuan Jiuniu 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 52% | Draw 29% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.61 / Sichuan Jiuniu 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.658 / def 1.002 | Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.667 / def 1.427 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.376 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Changchun Yatai 1 - 0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 52% chance of winning, Sichuan Jiuniu a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Record (3 meetings): Changchun Yatai 0W | Draws 1 | Sichuan Jiuniu 2W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Sichuan Jiuniu (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.66x the league average against Sichuan Jiuniu's defence at 1.43x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sichuan Jiuniu's attack (0.67x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.50
20%
5.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
2.53
0.92
Sichuan Jiuniu xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
5.09
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
5.02
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
4%
25.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.92 for Sichuan Jiuniu, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 11W 11D 29L from 51 games, a 0.86 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Changchun Yatai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sichuan Jiuniu, meanwhile, have gone 12W 10D 29L across 51 games — 0.90 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Sichuan Jiuniu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 0.90 for Sichuan Jiuniu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 8W 6D 11L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sichuan Jiuniu's away record stands at 4W 5D 16L across 25 trips, a 0.68 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Sichuan Jiuniu are on 1.08 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Blended
Sichuan Jiuniu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 11W 11D 29L in their last 51 games (0.86 PPG), while Sichuan Jiuniu have gone 12W 10D 29L in their last 51 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Sichuan Jiuniu away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.20 PPG; Sichuan Jiuniu away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 24 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sichuan Jiuniu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
2
Sichuan Jiuniu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu?
From 4 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Sichuan Jiuniu have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2025, when Changchun Yatai 1-0 Sichuan Jiuniu.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu?
Sichuan Jiuniu have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Sichuan Jiuniu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 56%, Sichuan Jiuniu 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Changchun Yatai) and 60% (Sichuan Jiuniu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sichuan Jiuniu in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Sichuan Jiuniu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Sichuan Jiuniu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Changchun Yatai's recent matches and 48% of Sichuan Jiuniu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Sichuan Jiuniu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 60% of Sichuan Jiuniu's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Sichuan Jiuniu tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sichuan Jiuniu in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Changchun Yatai edge out Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Changchun Yatai beat Sichuan Jiuniu 1-0 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.61 xG and Sichuan Jiuniu 0.92 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sichuan Jiuniu landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.66 / defence 1.00 against Sichuan Jiuniu attack 0.67 / defence 1.43, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 52% | Draw 29% | Sichuan Jiuniu 20%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 63%, Sichuan Jiuniu 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Sichuan Jiuniu's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 0.86 PPG, Sichuan Jiuniu 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Changchun Yatai win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Sichuan Jiuniu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.