Changchun Yatai 0-1 Henan Jianye – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Changchun Yatai take on Henan Jianye.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Henan Jianye make the trip to Development Area Stadium to face Changchun Yatai in Super League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Changchun Yatai have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Changchun Yatai have posted 6W 3D 1L at Development Area Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Development Area Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Changchun Yatai are significantly better at Development Area Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Henan Jianye's overall Super League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Henan Jianye's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Changchun Yatai, 1.20 for Henan Jianye — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Changchun Yatai lead 1W to 1W over the last 6 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Changchun Yatai — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Henan Jianye — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Changchun Yatai 60% versus Henan Jianye 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 58% | Henan Jianye 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 0.97 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.749 / defence 0.885 | Henan Jianye attack 0.777 / defence 0.748. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.438. Changchun Yatai's attack strength of 0.749 is below the league average — the 0.97 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Henan Jianye's defence strength of 0.748 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Changchun Yatai games / 40 Henan Jianye games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 33%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Henan Jianye 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Changchun Yatai 50% | Henan Jianye 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Changchun Yatai 0.97 / Henan Jianye 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.749 / def 0.885 | Henan Jianye attack 0.777 / def 0.748 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Henan Jianye xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 1 Henan Jianye.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 32% chance of winning, Henan Jianye a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
Record (6 meetings): Changchun Yatai 1W | Draws 4 | Henan Jianye 1W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Henan Jianye (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.75x the league average against Henan Jianye's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Henan Jianye's attack (0.78x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.09
35%
2.89
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
1.96
0.99
Henan Jianye xG
3.09
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
38%
2.65
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 13.9 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 0.99 for Henan Jianye, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Changchun Yatai come into this having played 60 games, going 18W 17D 25L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Henan Jianye sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (18W 18D 24L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Changchun Yatai against 1.20 for Henan Jianye. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Changchun Yatai's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Henan Jianye have taken 0.80 points per game from 30 outings (5W 9D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Changchun Yatai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Henan Jianye are on 1.20 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Changchun Yatai have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Henan Jianye
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 18W 17D 25L in their last 60 games (1.18 PPG), while Henan Jianye have gone 18W 18D 24L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Henan Jianye away?
Changchun Yatai's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.50 PPG; Henan Jianye away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since June 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Henan Jianye have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Henan Jianye won 6-2 on 11 Jul 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Henan Jianye — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Changchun Yatai
4
Draws
3
Henan Jianye
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
From 8 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 1, Henan Jianye have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Henan Jianye 2-0 Changchun Yatai.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye?
Henan Jianye have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Henan Jianye see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 63%, Henan Jianye 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Changchun Yatai) and 47% (Henan Jianye).
On the defensive side: Henan Jianye in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Henan Jianye away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Henan Jianye?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Changchun Yatai's games and 53% of Henan Jianye's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Henan Jianye usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Changchun Yatai's recent games and 47% of Henan Jianye's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Changchun Yatai and Henan Jianye tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Henan Jianye in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Henan Jianye edge out Changchun Yatai 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Henan Jianye beat Changchun Yatai 0-1 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 0.97 xG and Henan Jianye 0.99 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Changchun Yatai fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.75 / defence 0.89 against Henan Jianye attack 0.78 / defence 0.75, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 32% | Draw 35% | Henan Jianye 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Henan Jianye win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 58%, Henan Jianye 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Henan Jianye's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Changchun Yatai 1.18 PPG, Henan Jianye 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Henan Jianye win broke the near-deadlock. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Henan Jianye (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.