Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Changchun Yatai at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Development Area Stadium plays host to Changchun Yatai versus Beijing Guoan in Super League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 1 November 2025 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Changchun Yatai (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Changchun Yatai's home record at Development Area Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Super League appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Beijing Guoan's overall Super League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Beijing Guoan's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Changchun Yatai, 1.30 for Beijing Guoan — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Beijing Guoan, who have claimed 6 wins from 9 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.9 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2025, ended 1–2 with Beijing Guoan winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Beijing Guoan have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Changchun Yatai half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Beijing Guoan half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Changchun Yatai 59% and Beijing Guoan 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Changchun Yatai 60% | Beijing Guoan 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Changchun Yatai 1.65 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Changchun Yatai attack 0.810 / defence 1.067 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.061 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.805 / away 1.434. Data: 58 Changchun Yatai games / 58 Beijing Guoan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 37%. Fair-value odds: Changchun Yatai 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Beijing Guoan 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.62) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Changchun Yatai at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Changchun Yatai if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates are neutral: Changchun Yatai 50% | Beijing Guoan 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Development Area Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Changchun Yatai 1.65 / Beijing Guoan 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Changchun Yatai attack 0.810 / def 1.067 | Beijing Guoan attack 1.061 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.805 / away 1.434 • Poisson stance: Changchun Yatai (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Changchun Yatai xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Beijing Guoan xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kick off?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Development Area Stadium.
What was the final score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Changchun Yatai 0 - 4 Beijing Guoan.
Where is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan being played?
The match is being played at Development Area Stadium.
What competition is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan part of?
Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Super League (China).
Who is favourite to win Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our statistical model gives Changchun Yatai a 38% chance of winning, Beijing Guoan a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Changchun Yatai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan will score (BTTS).
Will Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Record (9 meetings): Changchun Yatai 2W | Draws 1 | Beijing Guoan 6W.
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in?
Changchun Yatai (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Beijing Guoan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Changchun Yatai's attack at 0.81x the league average against Beijing Guoan's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beijing Guoan's attack (1.06x) against Changchun Yatai's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Changchun Yatai Win
38%
2.61
24%
4.12
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Changchun Yatai xG
Total xG
3.27
1.62
Beijing Guoan xG
2.61
38%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
8%
13.22
7%
13.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.2 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Changchun Yatai and 1.62 for Beijing Guoan, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Changchun Yatai's recent record stands at 12W 15D 31L from 58 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-D in the last five.
Beijing Guoan, meanwhile, have gone 31W 14D 13L across 58 games — 1.84 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beijing Guoan by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Changchun Yatai heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Changchun Yatai have managed 9W 8D 12L from 29 games — 1.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beijing Guoan's away record stands at 12W 9D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Changchun Yatai are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Beijing Guoan are on 2.16 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Beijing Guoan in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Changchun Yatai
Current Season
Beijing Guoan
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan in coming into this match?
Changchun Yatai have gone 12W 15D 31L in their last 58 games (0.88 PPG), while Beijing Guoan have gone 31W 14D 13L in their last 58 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Changchun Yatai at home or Beijing Guoan away?
Beijing Guoan's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Changchun Yatai at home: 1.21 PPG; Beijing Guoan away: 1.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Beijing Guoan go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Beijing Guoan won 8-1 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Changchun Yatai have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Beijing Guoan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Changchun Yatai
1
Draws
7
Beijing Guoan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
From 10 meetings on record, Changchun Yatai have won 2, Beijing Guoan have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Changchun Yatai 0-4 Beijing Guoan.
Who has won more matches between Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan?
Beijing Guoan have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Changchun Yatai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Beijing Guoan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Changchun Yatai 55%, Beijing Guoan 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Changchun Yatai) and 59% (Beijing Guoan). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Changchun Yatai keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Changchun Yatai home games / Beijing Guoan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Changchun Yatai play Beijing Guoan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Changchun Yatai's games and 62% of Beijing Guoan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Changchun Yatai vs Beijing Guoan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Changchun Yatai's matches and 59% of Beijing Guoan's.
Do Changchun Yatai and Beijing Guoan tend to score early?
Changchun Yatai have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Beijing Guoan in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Beijing Guoan run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Changchun Yatai.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beijing Guoan beat Changchun Yatai 0-4 at Development Area Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Changchun Yatai 1.65 xG and Beijing Guoan 1.62 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Changchun Yatai fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Beijing Guoan outscored their 1.62 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Changchun Yatai attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Beijing Guoan attack 1.06 / defence 1.12, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Changchun Yatai 38% | Draw 24% | Beijing Guoan 37%, with Changchun Yatai to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Beijing Guoan win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Changchun Yatai 60%, Beijing Guoan 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Changchun Yatai's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Beijing Guoan's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Beijing Guoan arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Changchun Yatai (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beijing Guoan (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.