Forge 3-2 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Forge (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Forge face Vancouver FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Forge host Vancouver FC at Tim Hortons Field in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 July 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Forge — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Forge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tim Hortons Field, Forge have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tim Hortons Field. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tim Hortons Field this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vancouver FC stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Forge have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Forge: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Vancouver FC, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Forge winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Forge and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Forge in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Vancouver FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Forge 50% versus Vancouver FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Forge 45% | Vancouver FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Forge 1.86 xG and Vancouver FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Forge attack 1.025 / defence 0.958 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.268. Data: 28 Forge games / 28 Vancouver FC games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Forge 51% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 23%. Fair-value odds: Forge 1.96 | Draw 3.85 | Vancouver FC 4.35. Forge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Forge at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Forge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Forge 20% | Vancouver FC 70%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Forge vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: Tim Hortons Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Forge 51% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Forge 1.86 / Vancouver FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Forge attack 1.025 / def 0.958 | Vancouver FC attack 1.000 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: Forge (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Forge xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vancouver FC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Forge vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Forge vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 July 2026 at Tim Hortons Field.
What was the final score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Forge 3 - 2 Vancouver FC.
Where is Forge vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at Tim Hortons Field.
What competition is Forge vs Vancouver FC part of?
Forge vs Vancouver FC is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Forge a 51% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 23% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Forge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Forge and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Forge vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
Record (8 meetings): Forge 6W | Draws 2 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Forge and Vancouver FC in?
Forge (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Forge's attack rating (1.02) and Vancouver FC's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vancouver FC's attack versus Forge's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Forge Win
51%
1.97
26%
3.84
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Forge xG
Total xG
3.07
1.21
Vancouver FC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
4%
27.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Forge and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Forge and 1.21 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Forge vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Forge have picked up 2.03 PPG on a 22W 11D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Forge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vancouver FC's form line: 7W 11D 20L from 38 games, 0.84 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Forge are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vancouver FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Forge have posted 2.22 PPG from 18 outings (12W 4D 2L).
On the road, Vancouver FC have gone 3W 6D 9L from 18 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Forge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Forge are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.16 scored and 1.79 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vancouver FC in 63%.
Defensively: Forge have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Forge
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Forge and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Forge have gone 22W 11D 5L in their last 38 games (2.03 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 7W 11D 20L in their last 38 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Forge at home or Vancouver FC away?
Forge's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Forge at home: 2.22 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Forge or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Forge have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Forge's record when hosting Vancouver FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Forge
2
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Forge and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Forge have won 7, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Forge and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Forge 0-1 Vancouver FC.
Who has won more matches between Forge and Vancouver FC?
Forge have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Forge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Forge 33%, Vancouver FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Forge) and 50% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Forge keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Vancouver FC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Forge home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Forge play Vancouver FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Forge's recent matches and 67% of Vancouver FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Forge vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Forge's recent games and 50% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Forge and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Forge have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Forge edge out Vancouver FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Forge beat Vancouver FC 3-2 at Tim Hortons Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Forge 1.86 xG and Vancouver FC 1.21 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Forge beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Forge attack 1.02 / defence 0.96 against Vancouver FC attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Forge 51% | Draw 26% | Vancouver FC 23%, with Forge to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Forge 45%, Vancouver FC 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Forge's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Forge arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Forge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.