FC Edmonton 1-1 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pacific FC at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Pacific FC travel to Clarke Field to take on FC Edmonton. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 15 September 2021, 02:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Edmonton stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Edmonton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Edmonton's home record at Clarke Field: 3W 2D 3L from 8 Canadian Premier League appearances (1.38 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Pacific FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pacific FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pacific FC's away record: 3W 3D 1L from 7 road trips in Canadian Premier League this season (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 4 away clean sheets from 7 games (57%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.71 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pacific FC are 1.40 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for FC Edmonton, 1 for Pacific FC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Pacific FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
FC Edmonton in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Edmonton 47% versus Pacific FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Edmonton 47% | Pacific FC 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Edmonton 0.85 xG and Pacific FC 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Edmonton attack 0.825 / defence 1.036 | Pacific FC attack 0.873 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.034 / away 1.084. Data: 17 FC Edmonton games / 17 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Edmonton 30% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Edmonton 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Pacific FC 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pacific FC as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pacific FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Edmonton 38% | Pacific FC 29% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Clarke Field • Kick-off: Wednesday 15 Sep 2021, 02:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Edmonton 30% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG FC Edmonton 0.85 / Pacific FC 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Edmonton attack 0.825 / def 1.036 | Pacific FC attack 0.873 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.034 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Pacific FC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
FC Edmonton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Pacific FC xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kick off?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC kicked off at 02:30 on Wednesday 15 September 2021 at Clarke Field.
What was the final score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
FC Edmonton 1 - 1 Pacific FC.
Where is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at Clarke Field.
What competition is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC part of?
FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Edmonton a 30% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Pacific FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both FC Edmonton and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Record (2 meetings): FC Edmonton 0W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 1W.
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in?
FC Edmonton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Edmonton's attack rating (0.82) and Pacific FC's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus FC Edmonton's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pacific FC Win
30%
3.31
32%
3.08
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
FC Edmonton xG
Total xG
1.83
0.98
Pacific FC xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
11%
8.83
16%
6.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.7 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for FC Edmonton and 0.98 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Edmonton come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 5D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for FC Edmonton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Pacific FC sit at 2.00 PPG from 17 outings (10W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Pacific FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pacific FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of FC Edmonton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Edmonton's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC Edmonton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Pacific FC have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (3W 3D 1L).
The Goals Picture
FC Edmonton are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.76 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Pacific FC in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Edmonton
Blended
Pacific FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Edmonton and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
FC Edmonton have gone 4W 5D 8L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 10W 4D 3L in their last 17 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Edmonton at home or Pacific FC away?
Pacific FC's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Edmonton at home: 1.57 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.71 PPG.
Have FC Edmonton or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Edmonton have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Pacific FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2021, when Pacific FC won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Edmonton's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
FC Edmonton
3
Draws
5
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
From 9 meetings on record, FC Edmonton have won 1, Pacific FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Edmonton and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2022, when Pacific FC 1-0 FC Edmonton.
Who has won more matches between FC Edmonton and Pacific FC?
Pacific FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Edmonton see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Pacific FC see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Edmonton 43%, Pacific FC 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (FC Edmonton) and 43% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: FC Edmonton keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Pacific FC in 57%; FC Edmonton have failed to score in 29% of games; Pacific FC in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Edmonton home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Edmonton play Pacific FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of FC Edmonton's recent matches and 29% of Pacific FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Edmonton vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of FC Edmonton's recent games and 43% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
FC Edmonton and Pacific FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Clarke Field, Regular Season - 8, as FC Edmonton and Pacific FC drew 1-1 in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Edmonton 0.85 xG and Pacific FC 0.98 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Edmonton attack 0.82 / defence 1.04 against Pacific FC attack 0.87 / defence 0.99, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Edmonton 30% | Draw 32% | Pacific FC 37%, with Pacific FC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Edmonton 47%, Pacific FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Edmonton's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Pacific FC's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Pacific FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.