Cavalry FC 1-2 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs York United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
ATCO Field plays host to Cavalry FC versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Saturday 13 July 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cavalry FC have posted 5W 4D 1L at ATCO Field — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
York United's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for York United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Canadian Premier League this season, York United have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Cavalry FC, 1.70 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, York United in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
York United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 62% versus York United 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 48% | York United 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.50 xG and York United 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.962 / defence 0.830 | York United attack 0.861 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.215. Data: 41 Cavalry FC games / 41 York United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 51% | Draw 27% | York United 21%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | York United 4.76. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cavalry FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. This conflicts with form data: Cavalry FC 70% | York United 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jul 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 51% | Draw 27% | York United 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Cavalry FC 1.50 / York United 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.962 / def 0.830 | York United attack 0.861 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.87
York United xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs York United kick off?
Cavalry FC vs York United kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 13 July 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Cavalry FC 1 - 2 York United.
Where is Cavalry FC vs York United being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs York United part of?
Cavalry FC vs York United is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 51% chance of winning, York United a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Cavalry FC and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cavalry FC's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against York United's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — York United's attack (0.86x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.64
21%
4.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.37
0.87
York United xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.74
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.3 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.87 for York United, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Cavalry FC have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 20W 13D 9L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
York United's form line: 17W 7D 18L from 42 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W. The sample for York United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.74 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.38 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cavalry FC have posted 2.14 PPG from 21 outings (13W 6D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.74 PPG overall — Cavalry FC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, York United have gone 8W 4D 9L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.29 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
York United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and York United in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 20W 13D 9L in their last 42 games (1.74 PPG), while York United have gone 17W 7D 18L in their last 42 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or York United away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.14 PPG; York United away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Cavalry FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cavalry FC won 5-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
1
Draws
2
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, York United have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and York United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 5-0 York United.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and York United?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
York United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 62%, York United 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Cavalry FC and 71% for York United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cavalry FC's games and 67% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Cavalry FC's matches and 71% of York United's.
Do Cavalry FC and York United tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, York United in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as York United defy the odds to beat Cavalry FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Cavalry FC 1-2 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 7, in the Canadian Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.50 xG and York United 0.87 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. York United outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.83 against York United attack 0.86 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 51% | Draw 27% | York United 21%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a York United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 48%, York United 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
York United's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.74 PPG, York United 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.