Cavalry FC 1-0 Pacific FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Cavalry FC (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cavalry FC face Pacific FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Canadian Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 12 sees Pacific FC travel to ATCO Field to take on Cavalry FC. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 June 2025, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cavalry FC stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Canadian Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC's form when playing at home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 games at ATCO Field this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Canadian Premier League games this season, Pacific FC have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Pacific FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Cavalry FC are in the better shape of the two on current Canadian Premier League data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
Cavalry FC hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Pacific FC, with 1 draws in between.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 4–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Cavalry FC and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Cavalry FC in-play tendencies (60 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Pacific FC in-play tendencies (60 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 65% versus Pacific FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 52% | Pacific FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 2.16 xG and Pacific FC 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.280 / defence 0.907 | Pacific FC attack 0.714 / defence 1.186. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.262. Cavalry FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.280 — their λ of 2.16 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 38 Cavalry FC games / 39 Pacific FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 66% | Draw 23% | Pacific FC 11%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 1.52 | Draw 4.35 | Pacific FC 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Cavalry FC (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cavalry FC at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.97 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 80% | Pacific FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Monday 23 Jun 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 66% | Draw 23% | Pacific FC 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 51% | xG Cavalry FC 2.16 / Pacific FC 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.280 / def 0.907 | Pacific FC attack 0.714 / def 1.186 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.16
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Pacific FC xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 23 June 2025 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC 1 - 0 Pacific FC.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC part of?
Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 66% chance of winning, Pacific FC a 11% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cavalry FC and Pacific FC will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Record (4 meetings): Cavalry FC 3W | Draws 1 | Pacific FC 0W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Pacific FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cavalry FC's attack at 1.28x the league average against Pacific FC's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 2.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pacific FC's attack versus Cavalry FC's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
66%
1.51
23%
4.40
11%
9.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.16
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.97
0.82
Pacific FC xG
1.51
66%
Home win
4.40
23%
Draw
9.07
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
12%
8.65
Win to Nil
29%
3.42
1%
78.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 9.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.9 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC expected to score?
The model projects 2.16 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.82 for Pacific FC, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cavalry FC's recent record stands at 31W 18D 11L from 60 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Pacific FC, meanwhile, have gone 22W 14D 24L across 60 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cavalry FC by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pacific FC heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cavalry FC have managed 17W 11D 3L from 31 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pacific FC's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Pacific FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cavalry FC have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Pacific FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Pacific FC in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 18D 11L in their last 60 games (1.85 PPG), while Pacific FC have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Pacific FC away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Pacific FC away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Pacific FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Pacific FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Cavalry FC have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2025, when Cavalry FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cavalry FC's record when hosting Pacific FC specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
1
Pacific FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 7, Pacific FC have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Pacific FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when Pacific FC 0-1 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Pacific FC?
Cavalry FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cavalry FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Pacific FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 68%, Pacific FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cavalry FC) and 48% (Pacific FC).
On the defensive side: Pacific FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Pacific FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Pacific FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cavalry FC's games and 52% of Pacific FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 48% of Pacific FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Pacific FC tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Pacific FC in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cavalry FC edge out Pacific FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Pacific FC 1-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 2.16 xG and Pacific FC 0.82 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cavalry FC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Pacific FC landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.28 / defence 0.91 against Pacific FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.19, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 66% | Draw 23% | Pacific FC 11%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 66%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 52%, Pacific FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (60 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Pacific FC's trading profile (60 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cavalry FC arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.33. Form held, and they took the win. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Pacific FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.