Atlético Ottawa 0-1 York United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Atlético Ottawa take on York United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
TD Place Stadium plays host to Atlético Ottawa versus York United in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: W D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at TD Place Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
York United (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
York United away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Atlético Ottawa, 1.70 for York United — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Atlético Ottawa half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
York United half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 53% versus York United 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 40% | York United 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.08 xG and York United 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.010 / defence 0.992 | York United attack 1.003 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.035 / away 1.225. Data: 30 Atlético Ottawa games / 30 York United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 28% | Draw 36% | York United 35%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 3.57 | Draw 2.78 | York United 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Atlético Ottawa 60% | York United 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs York United | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 28% | Draw 36% | York United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 50% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.08 / York United 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.010 / def 0.992 | York United attack 1.003 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.035 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.22
York United xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs York United kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United kicked off at 22:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 1 York United.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs York United being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs York United part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs York United is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 28% chance of winning, York United a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and York United will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs York United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L. York United (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 1.01x the league average against York United's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — York United's attack (1.00x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.53
36%
2.76
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.29
1.22
York United xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
8%
11.93
12%
8.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and York United expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.22 for York United, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs York United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 57 games, going 19W 19D 19L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, York United sit at 1.23 PPG from 57 outings (17W 19D 21L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.23 for York United. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 8W 12D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, York United have taken 1.14 points per game from 29 outings (8W 9D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; York United are on 1.18 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
York United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and York United in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 19W 19D 19L in their last 57 games (1.33 PPG), while York United have gone 17W 19D 21L in their last 57 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or York United away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.24 PPG; York United away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: York United won 4-1 on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against York United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Atlético Ottawa
5
Draws
4
York United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 1, York United have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and York United last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 1-1 York United.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and York United?
York United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
York United see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 55%, York United 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atlético Ottawa) and 52% (York United).
On the defensive side: Atlético Ottawa have failed to score in 34% of games; York United in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / York United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play York United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 55% of York United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs York United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 52% of York United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as York United edge out Atlético Ottawa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
York United beat Atlético Ottawa 0-1 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.08 xG and York United 1.22 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against York United attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 28% | Draw 36% | York United 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual York United win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 40%, York United 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
York United's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.33 PPG, York United 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the York United win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. York United (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.