Atlético Ottawa 0-0 Vancouver FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vancouver FC make the trip to TD Place Stadium to face Atlético Ottawa in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 21:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Atlético Ottawa have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at TD Place Stadium, Atlético Ottawa have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vancouver FC's overall Canadian Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Vancouver FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vancouver FC away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Atlético Ottawa, 0.90 for Vancouver FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Atlético Ottawa have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Vancouver FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atlético Ottawa lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 1–0 with Atlético Ottawa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Vancouver FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atlético Ottawa 53% versus Vancouver FC 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atlético Ottawa 44% | Vancouver FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atlético Ottawa 1.47 xG and Vancouver FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.003 / defence 1.035 | Vancouver FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.171. Data: 55 Atlético Ottawa games / 55 Vancouver FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 43% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Atlético Ottawa 2.33 | Draw 3.33 | Vancouver FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atlético Ottawa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atlético Ottawa 70% | Vancouver FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: TD Place Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atlético Ottawa 43% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Atlético Ottawa 1.47 / Vancouver FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Atlético Ottawa attack 1.003 / def 1.035 | Vancouver FC attack 0.918 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Atlético Ottawa xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Vancouver FC xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kick off?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at TD Place Stadium.
What was the final score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa 0 - 0 Vancouver FC.
Where is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC being played?
The match is being played at TD Place Stadium.
What competition is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC part of?
Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our statistical model gives Atlético Ottawa a 43% chance of winning, Vancouver FC a 27% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC will score (BTTS).
Will Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Record (3 meetings): Atlético Ottawa 2W | Draws 1 | Vancouver FC 0W.
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in?
Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Vancouver FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atlético Ottawa's attack at 1.00x the league average against Vancouver FC's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vancouver FC's attack (0.92x) against Atlético Ottawa's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.5%), 0-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
43%
2.30
30%
3.34
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Atlético Ottawa xG
Total xG
2.58
1.11
Vancouver FC xG
2.30
43%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
14%
7.00
6%
16.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.3 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Atlético Ottawa and 1.11 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atlético Ottawa come into this having played 55 games, going 21W 16D 18L for 1.44 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Vancouver FC sit at 1.05 PPG from 55 outings (15W 13D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Vancouver FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Atlético Ottawa against 1.05 for Vancouver FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Atlético Ottawa's home form reads 10W 9D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Vancouver FC have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atlético Ottawa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atlético Ottawa are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Vancouver FC are on 1.04 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
Vancouver FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC in coming into this match?
Atlético Ottawa have gone 21W 16D 18L in their last 55 games (1.44 PPG), while Vancouver FC have gone 15W 13D 27L in their last 55 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atlético Ottawa at home or Vancouver FC away?
Atlético Ottawa's home record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atlético Ottawa at home: 1.44 PPG; Vancouver FC away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Atlético Ottawa or Vancouver FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atlético Ottawa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vancouver FC in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 6 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 0-3 on 13 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atlético Ottawa have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Vancouver FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atlético Ottawa
5
Draws
1
Vancouver FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, Vancouver FC have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC last play each other?
They last met on 6 June 2026, when Vancouver FC 2-1 Atlético Ottawa.
Who has won more matches between Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vancouver FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atlético Ottawa 56%, Vancouver FC 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Atlético Ottawa) and 59% (Vancouver FC).
On the defensive side: Vancouver FC in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atlético Ottawa home games / Vancouver FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atlético Ottawa play Vancouver FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Atlético Ottawa's games and 56% of Vancouver FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atlético Ottawa vs Vancouver FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Atlético Ottawa's recent games and 59% of Vancouver FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC tend to score early?
Atlético Ottawa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vancouver FC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atlético Ottawa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atlético Ottawa and Vancouver FC finished level at 0-0 at TD Place Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atlético Ottawa 1.47 xG and Vancouver FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atlético Ottawa fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Vancouver FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atlético Ottawa attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Vancouver FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atlético Ottawa 43% | Draw 30% | Vancouver FC 27%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atlético Ottawa 44%, Vancouver FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Vancouver FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atlético Ottawa 1.44 PPG, Vancouver FC 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Vancouver FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.