RB Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this RB Bragantino vs Mirassol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques plays host to RB Bragantino versus Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RB Bragantino have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 5W 1D 4L at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — RB Bragantino are significantly better at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques than their overall form suggests.
Mirassol's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Mirassol are 0.60 PPG clear of RB Bragantino in recent Serie A fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — RB Bragantino lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 3 previous contests averaged 1.3 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with RB Bragantino winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RB Bragantino 53% versus Mirassol 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RB Bragantino 50% | Mirassol 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.34 xG and Mirassol 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.917 / defence 1.039 | Mirassol attack 0.888 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.440 / away 1.180. Data: 66 RB Bragantino games / 66 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 28%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Mirassol 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
RB Bragantino dominate the H2H record, yet Mirassol are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mirassol (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: RB Bragantino 40% | Mirassol 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG RB Bragantino 1.34 / Mirassol 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.917 / def 1.039 | Mirassol attack 0.888 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.440 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Mirassol xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Mirassol kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
RB Bragantino 1 - 1 Mirassol.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol part of?
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 40% chance of winning, Mirassol a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both RB Bragantino and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
Record (3 meetings): RB Bragantino 2W | Draws 1 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are RB Bragantino and Mirassol in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Mirassol (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (0.92) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.89x) against RB Bragantino's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
40%
2.48
31%
3.18
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.43
1.09
Mirassol xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
14%
7.35
7%
13.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.6 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 1.09 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RB Bragantino come into this having played 66 games, going 24W 12D 30L for 1.27 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.50 PPG from 66 outings (26W 21D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for RB Bragantino against 1.50 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
RB Bragantino's home form reads 15W 6D 11L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.03 points per game from 32 outings (8W 9D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RB Bragantino are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.45 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 62%.
Last 66 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RB Bragantino and Mirassol in coming into this match?
RB Bragantino have gone 24W 12D 30L in their last 66 games (1.27 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 26W 21D 19L in their last 66 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RB Bragantino at home or Mirassol away?
RB Bragantino's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RB Bragantino at home: 1.59 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 7 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RB Bragantino have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
2
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
From 4 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Mirassol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2026, when RB Bragantino 1-1 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RB Bragantino 47%, Mirassol 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (RB Bragantino) and 38% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: RB Bragantino keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Mirassol in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RB Bragantino play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of RB Bragantino's recent matches and 53% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of RB Bragantino's recent games and 38% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RB Bragantino and Mirassol tend to score early?
RB Bragantino have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
RB Bragantino and Mirassol share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Cícero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 29, as RB Bragantino and Mirassol drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.34 xG and Mirassol 1.09 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 0.92 / defence 1.04 against Mirassol attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 40% | Draw 31% | Mirassol 28%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RB Bragantino 50%, Mirassol 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RB Bragantino's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Mirassol's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RB Bragantino 1.27 PPG, Mirassol 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.