Fortaleza EC 1-0 Sao Paulo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fortaleza EC (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Fortaleza EC face Sao Paulo.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sao Paulo make the trip to Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo to face Fortaleza EC in Serie A (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Sunday 28 July 2024 at 02:30 UK time.
Form
Fortaleza EC (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sao Paulo's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sao Paulo away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form ledger tips toward Fortaleza EC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Sao Paulo (2.30 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Fortaleza EC's last 10 home games and Sao Paulo's last 10 away games) — Fortaleza EC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sao Paulo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with Sao Paulo managing 0 and 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.7 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Fortaleza EC 2–1 Sao Paulo — a Fortaleza EC win.
The head-to-head data gives Fortaleza EC an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Fortaleza EC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Sao Paulo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 50% versus Sao Paulo 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortaleza EC 43% | Sao Paulo 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.67 xG and Sao Paulo 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 1.215 / defence 0.802 | Sao Paulo attack 1.034 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.041. Data: built from Fortaleza EC's last 56 games and Sao Paulo's last 57.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 26% | Sao Paulo 19%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 1.80 | Draw 3.89 | Sao Paulo 5.39. The model has a clear lean to Fortaleza EC (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fortaleza EC as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Fortaleza EC 60% (last 10 home games) | Sao Paulo 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo | Competition: Serie A, matchday 20 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 28 July 2024 at 02:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 26% | Sao Paulo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Fortaleza EC 1.67 / Sao Paulo 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 1.215 / def 0.802 | Sao Paulo attack 1.034 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sao Paulo xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo FAQs
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo kicked off at 02:30 UK time on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo?
Fortaleza EC 1 - 0 Sao Paulo.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo is a Serie A fixture (matchday 20) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 56% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fortaleza EC's attack at 1.22x the league average against Sao Paulo's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sao Paulo's attack (1.03x) against Fortaleza EC's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from Fortaleza EC's last 56 games and Sao Paulo's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.89
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.53
0.86
Sao Paulo xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
3%
28.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.3 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.86 for Sao Paulo, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 24W 15D 17L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sao Paulo's form line: 23W 16D 17L from 56 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Fortaleza EC against 1.52 for Sao Paulo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.96 PPG from their last 27 home games (15W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.55 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Sao Paulo have gone 4W 11D 12L from their last 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Sao Paulo's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Sao Paulo are on 1.20 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Sao Paulo in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
Fortaleza EC (Home) vs Sao Paulo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fortaleza EC
Blended
Sao Paulo
Blended
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo Form FAQs
What form are Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 24W 15D 17L in their last 56 games (1.55 PPG), while Sao Paulo have gone 23W 16D 17L in their last 56 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Sao Paulo away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.96 PPG; Sao Paulo away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Sao Paulo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Sao Paulo in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo, the earliest from July 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 2 October 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortaleza EC have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fortaleza EC
4
Draws
1
Sao Paulo
Recent Meetings
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Fortaleza EC have won 5, Sao Paulo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 October 2025: Fortaleza EC 0-2 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo?
Fortaleza EC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fortaleza EC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Sao Paulo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 48%, Sao Paulo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fortaleza EC) and 48% (Sao Paulo).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Sao Paulo in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Sao Paulo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fortaleza EC vs Sao Paulo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 56% of Sao Paulo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 48% of Sao Paulo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortaleza EC and Sao Paulo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 59% of Sao Paulo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fortaleza EC edge out Sao Paulo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fortaleza EC beat Sao Paulo 1-0 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.67 xG and Sao Paulo 0.86 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sao Paulo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 1.22 / defence 0.80 against Sao Paulo attack 1.03 / defence 1.02, drawn from 56/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 56% | Draw 26% | Sao Paulo 19%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 43%, Sao Paulo 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Sao Paulo's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.55 PPG, Sao Paulo 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fortaleza EC win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.