Botafogo 0-3 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 20 sees Cruzeiro travel to Estádio Nilton Santos to take on Botafogo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 July 2024, 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estádio Nilton Santos this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cruzeiro have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cruzeiro's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Botafogo at 2.10 PPG versus Cruzeiro's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Botafogo have won 0, Cruzeiro 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2024, ended 2–3 with Cruzeiro winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cruzeiro trading profile (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 50% versus Cruzeiro 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Botafogo 43% | Cruzeiro 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.61 xG and Cruzeiro 0.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.158 / defence 0.727 | Cruzeiro attack 0.739 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.041. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.727 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 57 Botafogo games / 56 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 63% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 12%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.59 | Draw 3.85 | Cruzeiro 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cruzeiro's lower xG of 0.56 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 40% | Cruzeiro 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jul 2024, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 63% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 35% | xG Botafogo 1.61 / Cruzeiro 0.56 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.158 / def 0.727 | Cruzeiro attack 0.739 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.56
Cruzeiro xG
35%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Botafogo vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 01:30 on Sunday 28 July 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Botafogo 0 - 3 Cruzeiro.
Where is Botafogo vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Cruzeiro part of?
Botafogo vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 63% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Botafogo and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cruzeiro?
Record (3 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 2 | Cruzeiro 1W.
What form are Botafogo and Cruzeiro in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Cruzeiro (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Botafogo's attack rating (1.16) and Cruzeiro's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cruzeiro's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.8%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
63%
1.60
26%
3.91
12%
8.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.17
0.56
Cruzeiro xG
1.60
63%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
8.40
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
57%
1.75
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
2%
42.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.4 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.3 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.56 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Cruzeiro?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Botafogo come into this having played 56 games, going 29W 14D 13L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cruzeiro sit at 1.41 PPG from 56 outings (21W 16D 19L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Botafogo on 1.80 PPG, Cruzeiro on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Botafogo's home form reads 17W 5D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.07 PPG return.
Away from home, Cruzeiro have taken 1.19 points per game from 27 outings (8W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Botafogo are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 1.07 scored and 0.93 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Cruzeiro in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 29W 14D 13L in their last 56 games (1.80 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 21W 16D 19L in their last 56 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Cruzeiro away?
Botafogo's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.07 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Botafogo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jan 2026, when Botafogo won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Botafogo's record when hosting Cruzeiro specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Botafogo
3
Draws
3
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cruzeiro?
From 8 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Cruzeiro have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Cruzeiro 0-1 Botafogo.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Cruzeiro?
Cruzeiro have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Cruzeiro see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Botafogo 44% BTTS, Cruzeiro 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Botafogo) and 30% (Cruzeiro).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Cruzeiro in 44%; Cruzeiro in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Botafogo's recent matches and 22% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Botafogo's recent games and 30% of Cruzeiro's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cruzeiro run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Botafogo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cruzeiro beat Botafogo 0-3 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.61 xG and Cruzeiro 0.56 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro outscored their 0.56 projection by 2.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.16 / defence 0.73 against Cruzeiro attack 0.74 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 63% | Draw 26% | Cruzeiro 12%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Cruzeiro win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 43%, Cruzeiro 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.80 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cruzeiro win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.