Fluminense 2-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Sport Recife at Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 May 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Fluminense at Estádio do Maracanã this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio do Maracanã. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fluminense, 0 for Sport Recife and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Fluminense winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.53 xG and Sport Recife 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.922 / defence 0.913 | Sport Recife attack 0.837 / defence 1.184. League average goals — home 1.400 / away 0.871. Data: 44 Fluminense games / 6 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 31% | Sport Recife 14%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.79 | Draw 3.23 | Sport Recife 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (56%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 56% | Draw 31% | Sport Recife 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Fluminense 1.53 / Sport Recife 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.922 / def 0.913 | Sport Recife attack 0.837 / def 1.184 | league avg home 1.400 / away 0.871 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Sport Recife xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Sport Recife kick off?
Fluminense vs Sport Recife kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Fluminense 2 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Fluminense vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Sport Recife part of?
Fluminense vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 56% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 14% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Fluminense and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Sport Recife?
Record (2 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 0 | Sport Recife 0W.
What form are Fluminense and Sport Recife in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-W-W. Fluminense home split: 1.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | CS 7.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (0.92) and Sport Recife's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 1-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
56%
1.80
31%
3.26
14%
7.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.19
0.67
Sport Recife xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
7.33
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
22%
4.61
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
3%
33.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.0 | 11.3 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.7 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.67 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Sport Recife?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Pre-Season
Sport Recife
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 October 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fluminense's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
0
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Sport Recife have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 1 October 2025, when Sport Recife 2-2 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Sport Recife?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out Sport Recife 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Sport Recife 2-1 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.53 xG and Sport Recife 0.67 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.92 / defence 0.91 against Sport Recife attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 56% | Draw 31% | Sport Recife 14%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.