Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Coritiba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fluminense host Coritiba at Estádio do Maracanã in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 October 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fluminense stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Estádio do Maracanã this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Coritiba have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Coritiba have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Fluminense are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fluminense have won 2, Coritiba 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fluminense in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Coritiba in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fluminense 75% and Coritiba 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 54% | Coritiba 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.03 xG and Coritiba 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.057 / defence 0.898 | Coritiba attack 0.890 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.169. Coritiba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Fluminense games / 28 Coritiba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 61% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 15%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Coritiba 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 80% | Coritiba 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Coritiba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estádio do Maracanã • Kick-off: Friday 9 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 61% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 55% | xG Fluminense 2.03 / Coritiba 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.057 / def 0.898 | Coritiba attack 0.890 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Coritiba xG
55%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Coritiba kick off?
Fluminense vs Coritiba kicked off at 00:30 on Friday 9 October 2026 at Estádio do Maracanã.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Fluminense 4 - 0 Coritiba.
Where is Fluminense vs Coritiba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio do Maracanã.
What competition is Fluminense vs Coritiba part of?
Fluminense vs Coritiba is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 61% chance of winning, Coritiba a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fluminense and Coritiba will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Coritiba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
Record (5 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 1 | Coritiba 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Coritiba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fluminense's attack rating (1.06) and Coritiba's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.03 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Coritiba's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.05
15%
6.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.96
0.93
Coritiba xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
6.89
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
13%
7.61
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
52.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Coritiba expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.93 for Coritiba, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Coritiba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 13W 9D 6L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Coritiba's form line: 10W 8D 10L from 28 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.71 PPG, Coritiba on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 2.36 PPG from 14 outings (10W 3D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.71 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Coritiba have gone 5W 4D 5L from 14 away games — 1.36 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Coritiba are on 1.32 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fluminense have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 28 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
Coritiba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Coritiba in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 13W 9D 6L in their last 28 games (1.71 PPG), while Coritiba have gone 10W 8D 10L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Coritiba away?
Fluminense's home record (2.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.36 PPG; Coritiba away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Oct 2026, when Fluminense won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Coritiba specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Fluminense
1
Draws
2
Coritiba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Coritiba?
From 6 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Coritiba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Coritiba last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Fluminense 4-0 Coritiba.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Coritiba?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Coritiba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 71%, Coritiba 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Fluminense and 57% for Coritiba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Coritiba in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Coritiba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Coritiba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fluminense's games and 43% of Coritiba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fluminense vs Coritiba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Fluminense's matches and 57% of Coritiba's.
Do Fluminense and Coritiba tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Coritiba in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fluminense run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Coritiba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Coritiba 4-0 at Estádio do Maracanã, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.03 xG and Coritiba 0.93 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Coritiba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.06 / defence 0.90 against Coritiba attack 0.89 / defence 1.32, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 61% | Draw 25% | Coritiba 15%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 61%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 54%, Coritiba 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Coritiba's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.71 PPG, Coritiba 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Coritiba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.