Criciuma 0-0 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Heriberto Hülse plays host to Criciuma versus Atletico Paranaense in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Monday 23 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Criciuma have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Criciuma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Criciuma have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Criciuma are significantly better at Estádio Heriberto Hülse than their overall form suggests.
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atletico Paranaense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atletico Paranaense's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Criciuma 0W, Atletico Paranaense 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Jun 2024, ended 1–3 with Atletico Paranaense winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Criciuma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Atletico Paranaense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Criciuma 76% and Atletico Paranaense 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Criciuma 64% | Atletico Paranaense 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Criciuma 1.16 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Criciuma attack 0.897 / defence 1.202 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.014 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.018. Data: 25 Criciuma games / 62 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Criciuma 34% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 38%. Fair-value odds: Criciuma 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Atletico Paranaense 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atletico Paranaense as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Criciuma 70% | Atletico Paranaense 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estádio Heriberto Hülse • Kick-off: Monday 23 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Criciuma 34% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Criciuma 1.16 / Atletico Paranaense 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Criciuma attack 0.897 / def 1.202 | Atletico Paranaense attack 1.014 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Criciuma xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Atletico Paranaense xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 22:30 on Monday 23 September 2024 at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What was the final score in Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense?
Criciuma 0 - 0 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Heriberto Hülse.
What competition is Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Criciuma a 34% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense?
Record (1 meetings): Criciuma 0W | Draws 0 | Atletico Paranaense 1W.
What form are Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense in?
Criciuma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Criciuma's attack rating (0.90) and Atletico Paranaense's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (1.01x) against Criciuma's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 25/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
34%
2.92
28%
3.62
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Criciuma xG
Total xG
2.40
1.24
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
10%
10.10
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Criciuma and 1.24 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 25 outings, Criciuma have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 7W 7D 11L record — D-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Criciuma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atletico Paranaense's form line: 8W 6D 11L from 25 games, 1.20 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Atletico Paranaense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Criciuma against 1.20 for Atletico Paranaense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Criciuma have posted 1.38 PPG from 13 outings (4W 6D 3L).
On the road, Atletico Paranaense have gone 4W 3D 6L from 13 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Criciuma are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Atletico Paranaense are on 1.08 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Criciuma have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Criciuma
Blended
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense in coming into this match?
Criciuma have gone 7W 7D 11L in their last 25 games (1.12 PPG), while Atletico Paranaense have gone 8W 6D 11L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Criciuma at home or Atletico Paranaense away?
Criciuma's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Criciuma at home: 1.38 PPG; Atletico Paranaense away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since June 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Criciuma
1
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense?
From 2 meetings on record, Criciuma have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 23 September 2024, when Criciuma 0-0 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Criciuma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Criciuma 77%, Atletico Paranaense 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Criciuma) and 38% (Atletico Paranaense).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Criciuma home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Criciuma play Atletico Paranaense?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Criciuma's games and 46% of Atletico Paranaense's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Criciuma vs Atletico Paranaense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Criciuma's recent games and 38% of Atletico Paranaense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense tend to score early?
Criciuma have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Atletico Paranaense in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Criciuma's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Heriberto Hülse, Regular Season - 27, as Criciuma and Atletico Paranaense drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Criciuma 1.16 xG and Atletico Paranaense 1.24 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Criciuma fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Atletico Paranaense landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Criciuma attack 0.90 / defence 1.20 against Atletico Paranaense attack 1.01 / defence 0.95, drawn from 25/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Criciuma 34% | Draw 28% | Atletico Paranaense 38%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Criciuma 64%, Atletico Paranaense 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Criciuma's trading profile (25 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did not.
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (25 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Criciuma 1.12 PPG, Atletico Paranaense 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Criciuma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.