Corinthians 3-0 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mirassol at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Corinthians vs Mirassol encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Mirassol travel to Neo Quimica Arena to take on Corinthians. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Neo Quimica Arena, Corinthians have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mirassol stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mirassol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mirassol have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form points away from home here. Mirassol's 1.80 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Corinthians's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Corinthians, 1 for Mirassol and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2025, ended 1–2 with Mirassol winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Corinthians trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mirassol trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 52% versus Mirassol 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 40% | Mirassol 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.10 xG and Mirassol 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.874 / defence 1.096 | Mirassol attack 1.074 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.001. Data: 64 Corinthians games / 25 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 34% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 38%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Mirassol 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mirassol at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mirassol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Corinthians 70% | Mirassol 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Neo Quimica Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 34% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Corinthians 1.10 / Mirassol 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.874 / def 1.096 | Mirassol attack 1.074 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Mirassol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Mirassol xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Mirassol kick off?
Corinthians vs Mirassol kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Neo Quimica Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Corinthians 3 - 0 Mirassol.
Where is Corinthians vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Neo Quimica Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Mirassol part of?
Corinthians vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 34% chance of winning, Mirassol a 38% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Mirassol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Corinthians and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Mirassol?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 0W | Draws 0 | Mirassol 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Mirassol in?
Corinthians (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Corinthians's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Mirassol's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, Mirassol's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mirassol Win
34%
2.95
28%
3.51
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.28
1.18
Mirassol xG
2.95
34%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
10%
9.59
12%
8.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.18 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Corinthians come into this having played 25 games, going 7W 8D 10L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (11W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Mirassol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mirassol carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Corinthians — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Corinthians's home form reads 4W 4D 4L across 12 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.42 points per game from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L).
The Goals Picture
Corinthians are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.68 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mirassol in 64%.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Blended
Mirassol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 games (1.16 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 11W 10D 4L in their last 25 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Mirassol away?
Mirassol's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.33 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Corinthians and Mirassol runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Oct 2025, when Corinthians won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Corinthians
0
Draws
2
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 1, Mirassol have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Mirassol 2-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Mirassol?
Mirassol have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 58%, Mirassol 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Corinthians) and 25% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Mirassol in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Corinthians's recent matches and 50% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Corinthians's recent games and 25% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Mirassol tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Corinthians run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Mirassol.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat Mirassol 3-0 at Neo Quimica Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.10 xG and Mirassol 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Corinthians beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against Mirassol attack 1.07 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 34% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 38%, with Mirassol to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Corinthians win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 40%, Mirassol 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Mirassol's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Mirassol arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Corinthians winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Corinthians (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Mirassol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.