Ceara 0-1 Atletico-MG – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ceara at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Atletico-MG fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ceara host Atletico-MG at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 June 2025 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Across all Serie A games this season, Atletico-MG have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atletico-MG's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Ceara have won 1, Atletico-MG 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.20 xG and Atletico-MG 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.978 / defence 0.908 | Atletico-MG attack 0.933 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 0.859. Data: 9 Ceara games / 48 Atletico-MG games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 46% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 22%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Atletico-MG 4.55. Ceara hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ceara at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ceara offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Atletico-MG | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Jun 2025, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 46% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Ceara 1.20 / Atletico-MG 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.978 / def 0.908 | Atletico-MG attack 0.933 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.280 / away 0.859 • Poisson stance: Ceara (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Atletico-MG xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Atletico-MG kick off?
Ceara vs Atletico-MG kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 1 June 2025 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Atletico-MG?
Ceara 0 - 1 Atletico-MG.
Where is Ceara vs Atletico-MG being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Atletico-MG part of?
Ceara vs Atletico-MG is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Atletico-MG?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 46% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ceara the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Atletico-MG?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Ceara and Atletico-MG will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Atletico-MG have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico-MG?
Record (4 meetings): Ceara 1W | Draws 2 | Atletico-MG 1W.
What form are Ceara and Atletico-MG in?
Atletico-MG (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Atletico-MG away split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Ceara's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Atletico-MG's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Atletico-MG's attack versus Ceara's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ceara Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.11
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ceara xG
Total xG
1.92
0.73
Atletico-MG xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
7%
15.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Atletico-MG?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Ceara and Atletico-MG expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ceara and 0.73 for Atletico-MG, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Atletico-MG?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Pre-Season
Atletico-MG
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ceara and Atletico-MG runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atletico-MG go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ceara's record when hosting Atletico-MG specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Ceara
2
Draws
3
Atletico-MG
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Atletico-MG?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 1, Atletico-MG have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Atletico-MG last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Atletico-MG 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Atletico-MG?
Atletico-MG have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Atletico-MG away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Atletico-MG defy the odds to beat Ceara 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico-MG beat Ceara 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.20 xG and Atletico-MG 0.73 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ceara fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.98 / defence 0.91 against Atletico-MG attack 0.93 / defence 0.95, drawn from 9/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 46% | Draw 32% | Atletico-MG 22%, with Ceara to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Atletico-MG win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.