Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Palmeiras travel to Ligga Arena to take on Atletico Paranaense in Serie A (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 23:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Atletico Paranaense — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Atletico Paranaense have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Palmeiras stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Palmeiras's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Palmeiras are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Palmeiras 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 May 2024, ended Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Palmeiras — a Atletico Paranaense win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Atletico Paranaense trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Palmeiras trading profile (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atletico Paranaense 55% versus Palmeiras 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atletico Paranaense 40% | Palmeiras 42%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Atletico Paranaense surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Palmeiras have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.07 xG and Palmeiras 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.906 / defence 1.247 | Palmeiras attack 1.044 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.032. Atletico Paranaense's defence rating of 1.247 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Palmeiras's projected output up. Data: built from Atletico Paranaense's last 60 games and Palmeiras's last 62.
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 43%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 3.37 | Draw 3.65 | Palmeiras 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atletico Paranaense 60% (last 10 home games) | Palmeiras 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, matchday 25 | Venue: Ligga Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 September 2024 at 23:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.07 / Palmeiras 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 0.906 / def 1.247 | Palmeiras attack 1.044 / def 0.886 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Palmeiras xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras FAQs
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras kicked off at 23:30 UK time on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Ligga Arena.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Atletico Paranaense 0 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Ligga Arena.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras is a Serie A fixture (matchday 25) (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 30% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 0.91x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Atletico Paranaense's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atletico Paranaense's last 60 games and Palmeiras's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
30%
3.37
27%
3.65
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.41
1.34
Palmeiras xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
8%
12.91
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 1.34 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atletico Paranaense's recent record stands at 22W 19D 19L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Palmeiras, meanwhile, have gone 32W 14D 14L across 60 games — 1.83 PPG, with L-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palmeiras by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atletico Paranaense heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atletico Paranaense have managed 14W 10D 5L from their last 29 home games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palmeiras's away record stands at 10W 11D 8L across their last 29 away games, a 1.41 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Palmeiras's recent record.
Goals in Recent Form
Atletico Paranaense are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.60 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
Atletico Paranaense (Home) vs Palmeiras (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atletico Paranaense
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Form FAQs
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Atletico Paranaense have gone 22W 19D 19L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 32W 14D 14L in their last 60 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atletico Paranaense at home or Palmeiras away?
Atletico Paranaense's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atletico Paranaense at home: 1.79 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Atletico Paranaense or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atletico Paranaense have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Atletico Paranaense's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Atletico Paranaense 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atletico Paranaense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atletico Paranaense 62%, Palmeiras 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Atletico Paranaense) and 41% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Atletico Paranaense keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Palmeiras in 38%; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atletico Paranaense vs Palmeiras Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 41% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Atletico Paranaense's recent games and 41% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atletico Paranaense and Palmeiras matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Atletico Paranaense's recent matches and 69% of Palmeiras's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Atletico Paranaense.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Atletico Paranaense 0-2 at Ligga Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.07 xG and Palmeiras 1.34 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 0.91 / defence 1.25 against Palmeiras attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 60/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 30% | Draw 27% | Palmeiras 43%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atletico Paranaense 40%, Palmeiras 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atletico Paranaense's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Palmeiras's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.42. That form edge translated into the three points. Atletico Paranaense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.