Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cuiaba make the trip to Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 24 August 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 8W 0D 2L across 10 games at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa than their overall form suggests.
Cuiaba have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Palmeiras's 1.50 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Palmeiras have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Cuiaba managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2024, ended 2–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The historical record gives Palmeiras a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Cuiaba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 39% versus Cuiaba 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 41% | Cuiaba 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.39 xG and Cuiaba 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.132 / defence 0.864 | Cuiaba attack 1.048 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.062. Data: 61 Palmeiras games / 59 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 46% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 26%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Cuiaba 3.85. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.35 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 40% | Cuiaba 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Aug 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 46% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Palmeiras 1.39 / Cuiaba 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.132 / def 0.864 | Cuiaba attack 1.048 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Cuiaba xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kick off?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 24 August 2024 at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Palmeiras 5 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba part of?
Palmeiras vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 46% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Palmeiras and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
Record (7 meetings): Palmeiras 5W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Cuiaba's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (1.05x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 61/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
46%
2.15
28%
3.61
26%
3.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.35
0.96
Cuiaba xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.88
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
6%
15.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.7 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.96 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Palmeiras come into this having played 59 games, going 31W 14D 14L for 1.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cuiaba sit at 1.17 PPG from 59 outings (18W 15D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.64 PPG clear of Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Palmeiras's home form reads 20W 3D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Cuiaba have taken 1.34 points per game from 29 outings (11W 6D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palmeiras are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.03 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 31W 14D 14L in their last 59 games (1.81 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 18W 15D 26L in their last 59 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Cuiaba away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.17 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 August 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palmeiras won 5-0 on 24 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
1
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Cuiaba have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 24 August 2024, when Palmeiras 5-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Cuiaba?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 34%, Cuiaba 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Palmeiras) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Cuiaba in 31%; Cuiaba in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 38% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Palmeiras's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Cuiaba 5-0 at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.39 xG and Cuiaba 0.96 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cuiaba landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.13 / defence 0.86 against Cuiaba attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 61/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 46% | Draw 28% | Cuiaba 26%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 41%, Cuiaba 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.17. Form held, and they took the win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.