Atletico Paranaense 2-2 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atletico Paranaense at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc meet at Arena da Baixada in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Monday 28 June 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atletico Paranaense 1.34 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.056 / defence 1.058 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.840 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 1.018. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Atletico Paranaense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Atletico Paranaense games / 6 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 47% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 25%. Fair-value odds: Atletico Paranaense 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Chapecoense-sc 4.00. Atletico Paranaense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atletico Paranaense at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atletico Paranaense if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena da Baixada • Kick-off: Monday 28 Jun 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atletico Paranaense 47% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Atletico Paranaense 1.34 / Chapecoense-sc 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Atletico Paranaense attack 1.056 / def 1.058 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.840 / def 1.318 | league avg home 0.966 / away 1.018 • Poisson stance: Atletico Paranaense (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Atletico Paranaense xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Chapecoense-sc xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 28 June 2021 at Arena da Baixada.
What was the final score in Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Paranaense 2 - 2 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena da Baixada.
What competition is Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Atletico Paranaense a 47% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Atletico Paranaense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atletico Paranaense's attack at 1.06x the league average against Chapecoense-sc's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.84x) against Atletico Paranaense's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 5/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atletico Paranaense Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.59
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Atletico Paranaense xG
Total xG
2.25
0.91
Chapecoense-sc xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
7%
15.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Atletico Paranaense and 0.91 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
Chapecoense-sc
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 12 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Atletico Paranaense have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atletico Paranaense won 1-4 on 12 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atletico Paranaense have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Chapecoense-sc — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atletico Paranaense
2
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc?
From 4 meetings on record, Atletico Paranaense have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 12 October 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 1-4 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atletico Paranaense home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena da Baixada, Regular Season - 7, as Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atletico Paranaense 1.34 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.91 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Chapecoense-sc outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atletico Paranaense attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.84 / defence 1.32, drawn from 5/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atletico Paranaense 47% | Draw 28% | Chapecoense-sc 25%, with Atletico Paranaense to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.