Union St. Gilloise 1-3 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 61% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Union St. Gilloise face Cercle Brugge.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Joseph Mariën plays host to Union St. Gilloise versus Cercle Brugge in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 12). Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 18:15 UK time.
Form
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union St. Gilloise's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Cercle Brugge have collected 0.90 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cercle Brugge's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Union St. Gilloise against 0.90 for Cercle Brugge. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise edge it 3 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Union St. Gilloise 2–1 Cercle Brugge — a Union St. Gilloise win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Union St. Gilloise half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Cercle Brugge half-time and goal-timing data (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union St. Gilloise 57% versus Cercle Brugge 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union St. Gilloise 57% | Cercle Brugge 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union St. Gilloise 1.58 xG and Cercle Brugge 0.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.910 / defence 0.685 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.691 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.564 / away 1.071. Cercle Brugge's attack rating of 0.691 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.51. Union St. Gilloise have a tight defence (rating 0.685), which is pulling Cercle Brugge's projected output down. Data: built from Union St. Gilloise's last 41 games and Cercle Brugge's last 41.
Result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 30% | Cercle Brugge 9%. Fair-value odds: Union St. Gilloise 1.63 | Draw 3.37 | Cercle Brugge 11.00. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (61%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 34% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Cercle Brugge's lower xG of 0.51 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 30% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 65% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union St. Gilloise 40% (last 10 home games) | Cercle Brugge 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 12 | Venue: Stade Joseph Mariën • Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 18:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 30% | Cercle Brugge 9% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 34% (No 66%) | xG Union St. Gilloise 1.58 / Cercle Brugge 0.51 • Poisson strength factors: Union St. Gilloise attack 0.910 / def 0.685 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.691 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.564 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Union St. Gilloise xG
Expected Goals
0.51
Cercle Brugge xG
34%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge FAQs
What time does Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 18:15 UK time on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What was the final score in Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Union St. Gilloise 1 - 3 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade Joseph Mariën.
What competition is Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 12) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Union St. Gilloise a 61% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 9% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (66%).
Will Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union St. Gilloise's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Cercle Brugge's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.58. Flip it around — Cercle Brugge's attack (0.69x) against Union St. Gilloise's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.51.
These ratings are built from Union St. Gilloise's last 41 games and Cercle Brugge's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (15.5%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
61%
1.63
30%
3.37
9%
11.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Union St. Gilloise xG
Total xG
2.08
0.51
Cercle Brugge xG
1.63
61%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
11.00
9%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
60%
1.66
21%
4.84
Win to Nil
37%
2.71
2%
53.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.6 | 9.9 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 15.5 | 7.8 | 2.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Union St. Gilloise and 0.51 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Union St. Gilloise come into this having played 51 games, going 28W 15D 8L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D.
On the other side, Cercle Brugge sit at 1.35 PPG from 51 outings (19W 12D 20L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Union St. Gilloise carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Union St. Gilloise's home form reads 16W 6D 3L across their last 25 home games, a 2.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Cercle Brugge have taken 1.20 points per game from their last 25 away games (8W 6D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union St. Gilloise come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union St. Gilloise are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.33 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Union St. Gilloise (Home) vs Cercle Brugge (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
Cercle Brugge
Blended
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Form FAQs
What form are Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Union St. Gilloise have gone 28W 15D 8L in their last 51 games (1.94 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 19W 12D 20L in their last 51 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union St. Gilloise at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Union St. Gilloise's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union St. Gilloise at home: 2.16 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Union St. Gilloise or Cercle Brugge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union St. Gilloise have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cercle Brugge in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won Union St. Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge on 25 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union St. Gilloise have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Cercle Brugge — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Union St. Gilloise
3
Draws
2
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union St. Gilloise have won 5, Cercle Brugge have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: Union St. Gilloise 5-2 Cercle Brugge.
Who has won more matches between Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union St. Gilloise 60%, Cercle Brugge 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Union St. Gilloise) and 48% (Cercle Brugge). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union St. Gilloise keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Cercle Brugge in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union St. Gilloise home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union St. Gilloise vs Cercle Brugge Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 44% of Cercle Brugge's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Union St. Gilloise's matches and 48% of Cercle Brugge's.
Do Union St. Gilloise and Cercle Brugge matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Union St. Gilloise's recent matches and 68% of Cercle Brugge's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Union St. Gilloise.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Union St. Gilloise 1-3 at Stade Joseph Mariën, Regular Season - 12, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union St. Gilloise 1.58 xG and Cercle Brugge 0.51 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Cercle Brugge outscored their 0.51 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union St. Gilloise attack 0.91 / defence 0.69 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.69 / defence 1.11, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union St. Gilloise 61% | Draw 30% | Cercle Brugge 9%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Cercle Brugge win, an outcome the model had rated at just 9% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union St. Gilloise 57%, Cercle Brugge 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Union St. Gilloise arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.35. Form was overturned, with Cercle Brugge winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.