Cercle Brugge 2-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cercle Brugge at 46% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Cercle Brugge face Charleroi.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Jan Breydelstadion to take on Cercle Brugge in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Cercle Brugge stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Cercle Brugge have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Charleroi have posted 4W 1D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cercle Brugge 1.20 PPG, Charleroi 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 80% of Cercle Brugge's games and 60% of Charleroi's (from Cercle Brugge's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Cercle Brugge have won 2, Charleroi 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 9 Mar 2024, ended Cercle Brugge 0–0 Charleroi — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Charleroi trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 58% versus Charleroi 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 56% | Charleroi 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.54 xG and Charleroi 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.947 / defence 1.057 | Charleroi attack 0.919 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.073. Data: built from Cercle Brugge's last 42 games and Charleroi's last 42.
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 46% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 23%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 2.17 | Draw 3.19 | Charleroi 4.41. Cercle Brugge hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cercle Brugge are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cercle Brugge offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.59 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Cercle Brugge's last 10 home games and Charleroi's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cercle Brugge 80% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 13 | Venue: Jan Breydelstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 November 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 46% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Cercle Brugge 1.54 / Charleroi 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.947 / def 1.057 | Charleroi attack 0.919 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Cercle Brugge (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Charleroi xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 3 November 2024 at Jan Breydelstadion.
What was the final score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Cercle Brugge 2 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydelstadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 13) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 46% chance of winning, Charleroi a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Cercle Brugge the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (0.95) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cercle Brugge's last 42 games and Charleroi's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cercle Brugge Win
46%
2.17
31%
3.19
23%
4.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.59
1.04
Charleroi xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
4.41
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
16%
6.17
5%
20.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.04 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 18W 12D 18L from 48 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 21L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cercle Brugge on 1.38 PPG, Charleroi on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 10W 6D 8L from their last 24 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 5D 14L across their last 24 away games, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Charleroi's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cercle Brugge come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.04 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
Cercle Brugge (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 18W 12D 18L in their last 48 games (1.38 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Charleroi away?
Cercle Brugge's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 1.50 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from March 2022. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won Charleroi 5-0 Cercle Brugge.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Cercle Brugge have won 4, Charleroi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 67%, Charleroi 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cercle Brugge) and 46% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cercle Brugge and Charleroi matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 42% of Charleroi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Cercle Brugge's recent games and 46% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cercle Brugge and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Cercle Brugge's recent matches and 62% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cercle Brugge cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Charleroi.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cercle Brugge beat Charleroi 2-0 at Jan Breydelstadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cercle Brugge 1.54 xG and Charleroi 1.04 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Charleroi landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cercle Brugge attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Charleroi attack 0.92 / defence 1.06, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cercle Brugge 46% | Draw 31% | Charleroi 23%, with Cercle Brugge to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cercle Brugge 56%, Charleroi 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cercle Brugge 1.38 PPG, Charleroi 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cercle Brugge win broke the near-deadlock. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.