St. Truiden vs SK Beveren – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates St. Truiden at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs SK Beveren fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as St. Truiden welcome SK Beveren to Daio Wasabi Stayen. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 March 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. St. Truiden have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Daio Wasabi Stayen, St. Truiden have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (St. Truiden) versus 1.90 (SK Beveren). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. St. Truiden register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, SK Beveren in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
SK Beveren trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 57% versus SK Beveren 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 62% | SK Beveren 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 2.48 xG and SK Beveren 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 1.073 / defence 0.972 | SK Beveren attack 0.579 / defence 1.514. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren bring a strong defensive rating of 1.514 — this is suppressing St. Truiden's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 St. Truiden games / 4 SK Beveren games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 74% | Draw 16% | SK Beveren 10%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | SK Beveren 10.00. The model has a clear lean to St. Truiden (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St. Truiden as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on No. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 60% | SK Beveren 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs SK Beveren | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Mar 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 74% | Draw 16% | SK Beveren 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 50% | xG St. Truiden 2.48 / SK Beveren 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 1.073 / def 0.972 | SK Beveren attack 0.579 / def 1.514 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: St. Truiden (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
0.78
SK Beveren xG
50%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs SK Beveren kick off?
St. Truiden vs SK Beveren is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 20 March 2027 at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
Where is St. Truiden vs SK Beveren being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen.
What competition is St. Truiden vs SK Beveren part of?
St. Truiden vs SK Beveren is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 74% chance of winning, SK Beveren a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making St. Truiden the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both St. Truiden and SK Beveren will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs SK Beveren have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and SK Beveren?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St. Truiden and SK Beveren in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St. Truiden's attack rating (1.07) and SK Beveren's defence rating (1.51), the model arrives at 2.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SK Beveren's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St. Truiden Win
74%
1.34
16%
6.34
10%
10.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
3.25
0.78
SK Beveren xG
1.34
74%
Home win
6.34
16%
Draw
10.27
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
8%
11.88
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
1%
121.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.2 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and SK Beveren expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for St. Truiden and 0.78 for SK Beveren, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs SK Beveren?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 20W 5D 12L from 37 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for St. Truiden, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SK Beveren, meanwhile, have gone 30W 4D 3L across 37 games — 2.54 PPG, with L-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 11W 3D 5L from 19 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SK Beveren's away record stands at 13W 3D 3L across 19 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
St. Truiden are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; SK Beveren are on 2.14 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Early Season
SK Beveren
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and SK Beveren in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 20W 5D 12L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while SK Beveren have gone 30W 4D 3L in their last 37 (2.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or SK Beveren away?
SK Beveren's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.89 PPG; SK Beveren away: 2.21 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or SK Beveren been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, SK Beveren in 43%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 53%, SK Beveren 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for St. Truiden and 79% for SK Beveren. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St. Truiden keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / SK Beveren away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play SK Beveren?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of St. Truiden's games and 63% of SK Beveren's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is St. Truiden vs SK Beveren usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of St. Truiden's matches and 79% of SK Beveren's.
Do St. Truiden and SK Beveren tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SK Beveren in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.