St. Truiden 1-1 Antwerp – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Antwerp at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this St. Truiden vs Antwerp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Antwerp travel to Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium to take on St. Truiden. The game is scheduled for Friday 24 November 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — St. Truiden are significantly better at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Antwerp — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Antwerp's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Antwerp are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for St. Truiden, 2 for Antwerp and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Antwerp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
St. Truiden trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Antwerp trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St. Truiden 46% versus Antwerp 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St. Truiden 44% | Antwerp 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St. Truiden 1.11 xG and Antwerp 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St. Truiden attack 0.765 / defence 1.006 | Antwerp attack 1.019 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.318. St. Truiden's attack strength of 0.765 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 St. Truiden games / 48 Antwerp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 39%. Fair-value odds: St. Truiden 3.57 | Draw 3.03 | Antwerp 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Antwerp at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Antwerp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: St. Truiden 30% | Antwerp 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St. Truiden vs Antwerp | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 Nov 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 53% | xG St. Truiden 1.11 / Antwerp 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: St. Truiden attack 0.765 / def 1.006 | Antwerp attack 1.019 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
St. Truiden xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Antwerp xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St. Truiden vs Antwerp kick off?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 November 2023 at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What was the final score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
St. Truiden 1 - 1 Antwerp.
Where is St. Truiden vs Antwerp being played?
The match is being played at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium.
What competition is St. Truiden vs Antwerp part of?
St. Truiden vs Antwerp is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our statistical model gives St. Truiden a 28% chance of winning, Antwerp a 39% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both St. Truiden and Antwerp will score (BTTS).
Will St. Truiden vs Antwerp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Record (4 meetings): St. Truiden 1W | Draws 1 | Antwerp 2W.
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in?
St. Truiden (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Antwerp (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
St. Truiden's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Antwerp's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Antwerp's attack versus St. Truiden's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
28%
3.58
33%
3.05
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
St. Truiden xG
Total xG
2.46
1.35
Antwerp xG
3.58
28%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
7%
13.81
13%
7.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 11.5 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St. Truiden and Antwerp expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for St. Truiden and 1.35 for Antwerp, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for St. Truiden vs Antwerp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
St. Truiden's recent record stands at 15W 15D 18L from 48 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Antwerp, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 10L across 48 games — 1.83 PPG, with W-L-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.58 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, St. Truiden have managed 9W 5D 10L from 24 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Antwerp's away record stands at 8W 8D 8L across 24 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Antwerp's season.
The Goals Picture
St. Truiden are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Antwerp are on 1.75 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St. Truiden
Blended
Antwerp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St. Truiden and Antwerp in coming into this match?
St. Truiden have gone 15W 15D 18L in their last 48 games (1.25 PPG), while Antwerp have gone 25W 13D 10L in their last 48 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St. Truiden at home or Antwerp away?
St. Truiden's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St. Truiden at home: 1.33 PPG; Antwerp away: 1.33 PPG.
Have St. Truiden or Antwerp been keeping clean sheets recently?
St. Truiden have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Antwerp in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St. Truiden and Antwerp runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St. Truiden's record when hosting Antwerp specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
St. Truiden
3
Draws
5
Antwerp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
From 10 meetings on record, St. Truiden have won 2, Antwerp have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St. Truiden and Antwerp last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between St. Truiden and Antwerp?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St. Truiden 38%, Antwerp 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (St. Truiden) and 42% (Antwerp).
On the defensive side: Antwerp in 42%; St. Truiden have failed to score in 42% of games; Antwerp in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St. Truiden home games / Antwerp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St. Truiden play Antwerp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of St. Truiden's recent matches and 38% of Antwerp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St. Truiden vs Antwerp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of St. Truiden's recent games and 42% of Antwerp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St. Truiden and Antwerp tend to score early?
St. Truiden have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Antwerp in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St. Truiden and Antwerp share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Daio Wasabi Stayen Stadium, Regular Season - 15, as St. Truiden and Antwerp drew 1-1 in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St. Truiden 1.11 xG and Antwerp 1.35 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St. Truiden attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Antwerp attack 1.02 / defence 0.88, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St. Truiden 28% | Draw 33% | Antwerp 39%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St. Truiden 44%, Antwerp 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St. Truiden's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Antwerp's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.25. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.