Gent 1-1 Union St. Gilloise – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gent vs Union St. Gilloise encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Planet Group Arena plays host to Gent versus Union St. Gilloise in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 26 November 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gent have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gent's home record at Planet Group Arena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Gent are significantly better at Planet Group Arena than their overall form suggests.
Union St. Gilloise (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Union St. Gilloise have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Union St. Gilloise are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gent have seen both teams score in 100% of their games, Union St. Gilloise in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Gent goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Union St. Gilloise goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gent 61% and Union St. Gilloise 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gent 59% | Union St. Gilloise 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gent 1.57 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gent attack 1.063 / defence 0.934 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.389 / defence 0.885. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.287. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Gent games / 48 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gent 34% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 38%. Fair-value odds: Gent 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | Union St. Gilloise 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union St. Gilloise as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union St. Gilloise if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gent 100% | Union St. Gilloise 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gent vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Planet Group Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gent 34% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Gent 1.57 / Union St. Gilloise 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Gent attack 1.063 / def 0.934 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.389 / def 0.885 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Gent xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Union St. Gilloise xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Planet Group Arena.
What was the final score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Gent 1 - 1 Union St. Gilloise.
Where is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Planet Group Arena.
What competition is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
Gent vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives Gent a 34% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Gent and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will Gent vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in?
Gent (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gent's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Union St. Gilloise's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Union St. Gilloise's attack (1.39x) against Gent's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
34%
2.91
27%
3.65
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Gent xG
Total xG
3.24
1.67
Union St. Gilloise xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.50
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
21%
4.83
Win to Nil
6%
15.45
8%
12.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gent and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Gent and 1.67 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Gent vs Union St. Gilloise?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Gent have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 28W 15D 11L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union St. Gilloise's form line: 36W 9D 9L from 54 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Union St. Gilloise is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.83 PPG for Gent against 2.17 for Union St. Gilloise. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gent have posted 2.00 PPG from 26 outings (15W 7D 4L).
On the road, Union St. Gilloise have gone 16W 6D 4L from 26 away games — 2.08 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gent are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 2.07 scored and 1.19 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Gent have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Union St. Gilloise in 67%.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gent
Blended
Union St. Gilloise
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gent and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
Gent have gone 28W 15D 11L in their last 54 games (1.83 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 36W 9D 9L in their last 54 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gent at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
Union St. Gilloise's away record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gent at home: 2.00 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 2.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 21 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union St. Gilloise won 0-3 on 5 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gent have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union St. Gilloise — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Gent
6
Draws
4
Union St. Gilloise
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
From 10 meetings on record, Gent have won 0, Union St. Gilloise have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Gent and Union St. Gilloise last play each other?
They last met on 21 May 2026, when Gent 0-0 Union St. Gilloise.
Who has won more matches between Gent and Union St. Gilloise?
Union St. Gilloise have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Gent, 73% for Union St. Gilloise — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Gent and 65% for Union St. Gilloise. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gent keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gent home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gent play Union St. Gilloise?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Gent's games and 73% of Union St. Gilloise's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gent vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Gent's matches and 65% of Union St. Gilloise's.
Do Gent and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
Gent have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gent and Union St. Gilloise share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gent and Union St. Gilloise finished level at 1-1 at Planet Group Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gent 1.57 xG and Union St. Gilloise 1.67 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gent attack 1.06 / defence 0.93 against Union St. Gilloise attack 1.39 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gent 34% | Draw 27% | Union St. Gilloise 38%, with Union St. Gilloise to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gent 59%, Union St. Gilloise 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gent's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Union St. Gilloise's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gent 1.83 PPG, Union St. Gilloise 2.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gent (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Union St. Gilloise (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.