SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union St. Gilloise at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Union St. Gilloise at Freethiel Stadion in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 31 October 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
SK Beveren — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at Freethiel Stadion this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Freethiel Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethiel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union St. Gilloise stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Union St. Gilloise have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union St. Gilloise's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 2.00 (Union St. Gilloise). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 51% versus Union St. Gilloise 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 65% | Union St. Gilloise 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 0.94 xG and Union St. Gilloise 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / defence 0.986 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.555 / defence 0.777. League average goals — home 1.523 / away 1.386. SK Beveren's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Union St. Gilloise's defence strength of 0.777 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Union St. Gilloise have an above-average attack strength of 1.555 — the away xG of 2.12 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 4 SK Beveren games / 35 Union St. Gilloise games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 16% | Draw 20% | Union St. Gilloise 65%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 6.25 | Draw 5.00 | Union St. Gilloise 1.54. The model has a clear lean to Union St. Gilloise (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Union St. Gilloise at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: SK Beveren 30% | Union St. Gilloise 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Freethiel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 16% | Draw 20% | Union St. Gilloise 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG SK Beveren 0.94 / Union St. Gilloise 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.795 / def 0.986 | Union St. Gilloise attack 1.555 / def 0.777 | league avg home 1.523 / away 1.386 • Poisson stance: Union St. Gilloise (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
2.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise kick off?
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Freethiel Stadion.
Where is SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise being played?
The match is being played at Freethiel Stadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise part of?
SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 16% chance of winning, Union St. Gilloise a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Union St. Gilloise the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Union St. Gilloise (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.80) and Union St. Gilloise's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Union St. Gilloise's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.5%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union St. Gilloise Win
16%
6.39
20%
5.04
65%
1.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.06
2.12
Union St. Gilloise xG
6.39
16%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
1.55
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
12%
8.36
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
2%
53.45
25%
3.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.9 | 10.5 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for SK Beveren and 2.12 for Union St. Gilloise, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Beveren come into this having played 37 games, going 30W 4D 3L for 2.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union St. Gilloise sit at 2.14 PPG from 37 outings (23W 10D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union St. Gilloise, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 2.54 PPG, Union St. Gilloise on 2.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SK Beveren's home form reads 17W 1D 0L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Union St. Gilloise have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (7W 7D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union St. Gilloise's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 2.14 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Union St. Gilloise are on 1.70 scored and 0.70 conceded. SK Beveren's scoring rate against Union St. Gilloise's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Union St. Gilloise in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
Union St. Gilloise
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 30W 4D 3L in their last 37 games (2.54 PPG), while Union St. Gilloise have gone 23W 10D 4L in their last 37 (2.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Union St. Gilloise away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.89 PPG; Union St. Gilloise away: 1.56 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Union St. Gilloise been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Union St. Gilloise in 46%.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Union St. Gilloise are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 39%, Union St. Gilloise 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (SK Beveren) and 44% (Union St. Gilloise).
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Union St. Gilloise in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Union St. Gilloise away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play Union St. Gilloise?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 56% of Union St. Gilloise's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SK Beveren vs Union St. Gilloise usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of SK Beveren's recent games and 44% of Union St. Gilloise's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SK Beveren and Union St. Gilloise tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Union St. Gilloise in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.