RAAL La Louvière 1-0 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charleroi at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi meet at Easi Arena in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 August 2025 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
RAAL La Louvière's overall Jupiler Pro League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. RAAL La Louvière have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
RAAL La Louvière at Easi Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Charleroi (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Charleroi have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for RAAL La Louvière against 2.10 for Charleroi. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RAAL La Louvière have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Charleroi in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
RAAL La Louvière — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Charleroi — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — RAAL La Louvière 58% versus Charleroi 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RAAL La Louvière 48% | Charleroi 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RAAL La Louvière 1.14 xG and Charleroi 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.693 / defence 1.249 | Charleroi attack 1.146 / defence 1.058. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.075. RAAL La Louvière's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 2 RAAL La Louvière games / 32 Charleroi games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 43%. Fair-value odds: RAAL La Louvière 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Charleroi 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Charleroi at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charleroi if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: RAAL La Louvière 60% | Charleroi 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Easi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Aug 2025, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG RAAL La Louvière 1.14 / Charleroi 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: RAAL La Louvière attack 0.693 / def 1.249 | Charleroi attack 1.146 / def 1.058 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
RAAL La Louvière xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Charleroi xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi kick off?
RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 10 August 2025 at Easi Arena.
What was the final score in RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi?
RAAL La Louvière 1 - 0 Charleroi.
Where is RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Easi Arena.
What competition is RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi part of?
RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives RAAL La Louvière a 24% chance of winning, Charleroi a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi in?
RAAL La Louvière (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Charleroi (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RAAL La Louvière's attack rating (0.69) and Charleroi's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Charleroi's attack (1.15x) against RAAL La Louvière's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
The sample (2/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
24%
4.08
33%
3.07
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
RAAL La Louvière xG
Total xG
2.68
1.54
Charleroi xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
14%
7.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.8 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for RAAL La Louvière and 1.54 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RAAL La Louvière's recent record stands at 18W 8D 5L from 31 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for RAAL La Louvière, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 8L across 31 games — 1.58 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours RAAL La Louvière by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Charleroi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RAAL La Louvière have managed 9W 4D 2L from 15 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 5W 6D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RAAL La Louvière come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RAAL La Louvière are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.52 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Charleroi in 61%.
Last 31 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RAAL La Louvière
Early Season
Charleroi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi in coming into this match?
RAAL La Louvière have gone 18W 8D 5L in their last 31 games (2.00 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 13W 10D 8L in their last 31 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RAAL La Louvière at home or Charleroi away?
RAAL La Louvière's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RAAL La Louvière at home: 2.07 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.40 PPG.
Have RAAL La Louvière or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
RAAL La Louvière have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Charleroi in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
RAAL La Louvière
1
Draws
0
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi?
From 2 meetings on record, RAAL La Louvière have won 1, Charleroi have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Charleroi 0-0 RAAL La Louvière.
Who has won more matches between RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi?
RAAL La Louvière have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RAAL La Louvière are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — RAAL La Louvière 53%, Charleroi 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (RAAL La Louvière) and 53% (Charleroi).
On the defensive side: RAAL La Louvière keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RAAL La Louvière have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RAAL La Louvière home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RAAL La Louvière play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of RAAL La Louvière's games and 67% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RAAL La Louvière vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of RAAL La Louvière's recent games and 53% of Charleroi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do RAAL La Louvière and Charleroi tend to score early?
RAAL La Louvière have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RAAL La Louvière defy the odds to beat Charleroi 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RAAL La Louvière beat Charleroi 1-0 at Easi Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RAAL La Louvière 1.14 xG and Charleroi 1.54 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charleroi landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RAAL La Louvière attack 0.69 / defence 1.25 against Charleroi attack 1.15 / defence 1.06, drawn from 2/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it RAAL La Louvière 24% | Draw 33% | Charleroi 43%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a RAAL La Louvière win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RAAL La Louvière 48%, Charleroi 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RAAL La Louvière's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charleroi's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, RAAL La Louvière arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was vindicated by the result. RAAL La Louvière (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.