KVC Westerlo 0-1 Charleroi – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KVC Westerlo at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Charleroi travel to Het Kuipje to take on KVC Westerlo in Jupiler Pro League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, KVC Westerlo stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, KVC Westerlo have posted 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Charleroi have recorded 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Charleroi have posted 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
KVC Westerlo are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Profile
KVC Westerlo in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; of the 24 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Charleroi in-play tendencies (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — KVC Westerlo 63% and Charleroi 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KVC Westerlo 65% | Charleroi 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KVC Westerlo 1.59 xG and Charleroi 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KVC Westerlo attack 1.071 / defence 1.277 | Charleroi attack 0.590 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.223. Charleroi's attack rating of 0.590 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. KVC Westerlo's defence rating of 1.277 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Charleroi's projected output up. Data: built from KVC Westerlo's last 61 games and Charleroi's last 60.
Result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 53% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 22%. Fair-value odds: KVC Westerlo 1.89 | Draw 3.94 | Charleroi 4.60. KVC Westerlo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KVC Westerlo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KVC Westerlo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KVC Westerlo 50% (last 10 home games) | Charleroi 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: Het Kuipje • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KVC Westerlo 53% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG KVC Westerlo 1.59 / Charleroi 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: KVC Westerlo attack 1.071 / def 1.277 | Charleroi attack 0.590 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: KVC Westerlo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
KVC Westerlo xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Charleroi xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi FAQs
What time does KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kick off?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at Het Kuipje.
What was the final score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
KVC Westerlo 0 - 1 Charleroi.
Where is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Het Kuipje.
What competition is KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi part of?
KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi is a Jupiler Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives KVC Westerlo a 53% chance of winning, Charleroi a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making KVC Westerlo the favourite.
Will both teams score in KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both KVC Westerlo and Charleroi will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KVC Westerlo's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Charleroi's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus KVC Westerlo's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from KVC Westerlo's last 61 games and Charleroi's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KVC Westerlo Win
53%
1.89
25%
3.94
22%
4.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
KVC Westerlo xG
Total xG
2.51
0.92
Charleroi xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.60
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
20%
4.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
22.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.9 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for KVC Westerlo and 0.92 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, KVC Westerlo have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 20W 18D 22L record — W-L-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Charleroi's form line: 20W 13D 27L from 60 games, 1.22 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: KVC Westerlo on 1.30 PPG, Charleroi on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, KVC Westerlo have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 30 home games (12W 5D 13L).
On the road, Charleroi have gone 7W 8D 15L from their last 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KVC Westerlo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KVC Westerlo are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KVC Westerlo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KVC Westerlo
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
KVC Westerlo (Home) vs Charleroi (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KVC Westerlo
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi Form FAQs
What form are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi in coming into this match?
KVC Westerlo have gone 20W 18D 22L in their last 60 games (1.30 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 20W 13D 27L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KVC Westerlo at home or Charleroi away?
KVC Westerlo's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KVC Westerlo at home: 1.37 PPG; Charleroi away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Jupiler Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 7 Nov 2026, when Charleroi won KVC Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi.
KVC Westerlo's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 2W 1D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
KVC Westerlo
1
Draws
6
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KVC Westerlo have won 3, Charleroi have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did KVC Westerlo and Charleroi last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: KVC Westerlo 1-5 Charleroi.
Who has won more matches between KVC Westerlo and Charleroi?
Charleroi have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KVC Westerlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KVC Westerlo 63%, Charleroi 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for KVC Westerlo and 47% for Charleroi. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 33%; Charleroi in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KVC Westerlo home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KVC Westerlo vs Charleroi Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KVC Westerlo and Charleroi matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of KVC Westerlo's games and 47% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KVC Westerlo and Charleroi matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of KVC Westerlo's matches and 47% of Charleroi's.
Do KVC Westerlo and Charleroi matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of KVC Westerlo's recent matches and 60% of Charleroi's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Charleroi defy the odds to beat KVC Westerlo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat KVC Westerlo 0-1 at Het Kuipje, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KVC Westerlo 1.59 xG and Charleroi 0.92 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KVC Westerlo fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KVC Westerlo attack 1.07 / defence 1.28 against Charleroi attack 0.59 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KVC Westerlo 53% | Draw 25% | Charleroi 22%, with KVC Westerlo to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Charleroi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KVC Westerlo 65%, Charleroi 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KVC Westerlo's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Charleroi's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KVC Westerlo 1.30 PPG, Charleroi 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charleroi win broke the near-deadlock. KVC Westerlo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Charleroi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.