Antwerp 3-0 St. Truiden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Antwerp at 72%, yet other data sources diverge — this Antwerp vs St. Truiden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees St. Truiden travel to Bosuilstadion to take on Antwerp. The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Antwerp — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Antwerp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bosuilstadion, Antwerp have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Antwerp are significantly better at Bosuilstadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St. Truiden stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St. Truiden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
St. Truiden's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Antwerp 1.50 PPG, St. Truiden 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Antwerp register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, St. Truiden in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Antwerp, 1 for St. Truiden and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Nov 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Antwerp trading profile (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
St. Truiden trading profile (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Antwerp 41% versus St. Truiden 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Antwerp 49% | St. Truiden 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Antwerp 2.61 xG and St. Truiden 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Antwerp attack 1.251 / defence 0.823 | St. Truiden attack 0.951 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.274. Antwerp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 2.61 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St. Truiden bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Antwerp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Antwerp games / 61 St. Truiden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Antwerp 72% | Draw 16% | St. Truiden 12%. Fair-value odds: Antwerp 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | St. Truiden 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Antwerp (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Antwerp are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.60 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Antwerp 60% | St. Truiden 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Antwerp vs St. Truiden | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Bosuilstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Antwerp 72% | Draw 16% | St. Truiden 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 58% | xG Antwerp 2.61 / St. Truiden 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Antwerp attack 1.251 / def 0.823 | St. Truiden attack 0.951 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Antwerp (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
Antwerp xG
Expected Goals
1.00
St. Truiden xG
58%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Antwerp vs St. Truiden kick off?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 3 March 2024 at Bosuilstadion.
What was the final score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Antwerp 3 - 0 St. Truiden.
Where is Antwerp vs St. Truiden being played?
The match is being played at Bosuilstadion.
What competition is Antwerp vs St. Truiden part of?
Antwerp vs St. Truiden is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our statistical model gives Antwerp a 72% chance of winning, St. Truiden a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Antwerp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Antwerp and St. Truiden will score (BTTS).
Will Antwerp vs St. Truiden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Record (5 meetings): Antwerp 2W | Draws 2 | St. Truiden 1W.
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in?
Antwerp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. St. Truiden (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Antwerp's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against St. Truiden's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.61. The same calculation in reverse, St. Truiden's attack versus Antwerp's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 3-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Antwerp Win
72%
1.39
16%
6.27
12%
8.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
3 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
Antwerp xG
Total xG
3.60
1.00
St. Truiden xG
1.39
72%
Home win
6.27
16%
Draw
8.22
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
7%
13.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
1%
111.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Antwerp and St. Truiden expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for Antwerp and 1.00 for St. Truiden, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Antwerp vs St. Truiden?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Antwerp's recent record stands at 31W 17D 13L from 61 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Antwerp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St. Truiden, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 22L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for St. Truiden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Antwerp by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over St. Truiden heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Antwerp have managed 20W 7D 3L from 30 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.80 PPG overall — Antwerp are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
St. Truiden's away record stands at 7W 11D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Antwerp come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Antwerp are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; St. Truiden are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Antwerp
Blended
St. Truiden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Antwerp and St. Truiden in coming into this match?
Antwerp have gone 31W 17D 13L in their last 61 games (1.80 PPG), while St. Truiden have gone 20W 19D 22L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Antwerp at home or St. Truiden away?
Antwerp's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Antwerp at home: 2.23 PPG; St. Truiden away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Antwerp or St. Truiden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Antwerp have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, St. Truiden in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Aug 2024, when Antwerp won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Antwerp's record when hosting St. Truiden specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Antwerp
3
Draws
2
St. Truiden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
From 10 meetings on record, Antwerp have won 5, St. Truiden have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Antwerp and St. Truiden last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Antwerp 1-0 St. Truiden.
Who has won more matches between Antwerp and St. Truiden?
Antwerp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Antwerp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
St. Truiden are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Antwerp 43%, St. Truiden 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Antwerp) and 50% (St. Truiden).
On the defensive side: Antwerp keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; St. Truiden in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Antwerp home games / St. Truiden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Antwerp play St. Truiden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Antwerp's recent matches and 57% of St. Truiden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Antwerp vs St. Truiden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Antwerp's recent games and 50% of St. Truiden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Antwerp and St. Truiden tend to score early?
Antwerp have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, St. Truiden in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Antwerp run riot with a 3-0 hammering of St. Truiden.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Antwerp beat St. Truiden 3-0 at Bosuilstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Jupiler Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Antwerp 2.61 xG and St. Truiden 1.00 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. St. Truiden landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Antwerp attack 1.25 / defence 0.82 against St. Truiden attack 0.95 / defence 1.35, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Antwerp 72% | Draw 16% | St. Truiden 12%, with Antwerp to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Antwerp 49%, St. Truiden 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Antwerp's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
St. Truiden's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Antwerp arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.30. That form edge translated into the three points. Antwerp (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm. St. Truiden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.