Genk 2-0 Anderlecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genk at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genk vs Anderlecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Cegeka Arena plays host to Genk versus Anderlecht in Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 22 December 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genk have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cegeka Arena, Genk have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cegeka Arena. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Genk are significantly better at Cegeka Arena than their overall form suggests.
Anderlecht (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Jupiler Pro League outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Anderlecht have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Genk, 2 for Anderlecht and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Genk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Genk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Anderlecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genk 50% versus Anderlecht 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genk 53% | Anderlecht 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genk 1.33 xG and Anderlecht 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genk attack 1.245 / defence 0.922 | Anderlecht attack 1.288 / defence 0.642. League average goals — home 1.659 / away 1.038. Anderlecht's defence strength of 0.642 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Anderlecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — the away xG of 1.23 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Genk games / 48 Anderlecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genk 35% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 31%. Fair-value odds: Genk 2.86 | Draw 2.94 | Anderlecht 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genk at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Genk 40% | Anderlecht 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genk vs Anderlecht | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Cegeka Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Dec 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genk 35% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 56% | xG Genk 1.33 / Anderlecht 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Genk attack 1.245 / def 0.922 | Anderlecht attack 1.288 / def 0.642 | league avg home 1.659 / away 1.038 • Poisson stance: Genk (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Genk xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Anderlecht xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genk vs Anderlecht kick off?
Genk vs Anderlecht kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 22 December 2024 at Cegeka Arena.
What was the final score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Genk 2 - 0 Anderlecht.
Where is Genk vs Anderlecht being played?
The match is being played at Cegeka Arena.
What competition is Genk vs Anderlecht part of?
Genk vs Anderlecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our statistical model gives Genk a 35% chance of winning, Anderlecht a 31% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Genk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genk and Anderlecht will score (BTTS).
Will Genk vs Anderlecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
Record (4 meetings): Genk 2W | Draws 0 | Anderlecht 2W.
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in?
Genk (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Anderlecht (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genk's attack at 1.25x the league average against Anderlecht's defence at 0.64x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Anderlecht's attack (1.29x) against Genk's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genk Win
35%
2.85
34%
2.92
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Genk xG
Total xG
2.56
1.23
Anderlecht xG
2.85
35%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
10%
9.79
8%
12.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Genk and Anderlecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Genk and 1.23 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Genk vs Anderlecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genk's recent record stands at 27W 14D 17L from 58 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Genk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Anderlecht, meanwhile, have gone 31W 17D 10L across 58 games — 1.90 PPG, with W-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Genk against 1.90 for Anderlecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Genk have managed 17W 8D 4L from 29 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Anderlecht's away record stands at 11W 11D 7L across 29 trips, a 1.52 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genk are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Anderlecht are on 1.79 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genk
Blended
Anderlecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genk and Anderlecht in coming into this match?
Genk have gone 27W 14D 17L in their last 58 games (1.64 PPG), while Anderlecht have gone 31W 17D 10L in their last 58 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genk at home or Anderlecht away?
Genk's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genk at home: 2.03 PPG; Anderlecht away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Genk or Anderlecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genk have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Anderlecht in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 6 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genk have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Anderlecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Genk
2
Draws
2
Anderlecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genk and Anderlecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Genk have won 6, Anderlecht have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genk and Anderlecht last play each other?
They last met on 6 September 2026, when Anderlecht 0-0 Genk.
Who has won more matches between Genk and Anderlecht?
Genk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genk 45%, Anderlecht 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Genk) and 59% (Anderlecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Genk keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genk home games / Anderlecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genk play Anderlecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Genk's games and 69% of Anderlecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genk vs Anderlecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Genk's matches and 59% of Anderlecht's.
Do Genk and Anderlecht tend to score early?
Genk have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Anderlecht in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genk cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Anderlecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genk beat Anderlecht 2-0 at Cegeka Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genk 1.33 xG and Anderlecht 1.23 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Anderlecht landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genk attack 1.25 / defence 0.92 against Anderlecht attack 1.29 / defence 0.64, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genk 35% | Draw 34% | Anderlecht 31%, with Genk to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genk 53%, Anderlecht 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genk's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Anderlecht's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genk 1.64 PPG, Anderlecht 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genk win broke the near-deadlock. Genk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Anderlecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.