Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 7 as Charleroi welcome Cercle Brugge to Stade du Pays de Charleroi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Charleroi have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Charleroi's home record at Stade du Pays de Charleroi: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade du Pays de Charleroi this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cercle Brugge have played only a handful of Jupiler Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cercle Brugge's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Jupiler Pro League this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Charleroi carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.20 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Charleroi register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cercle Brugge in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Charleroi have won 3, Cercle Brugge 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 3–4 with Cercle Brugge winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Charleroi in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cercle Brugge in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charleroi 50% versus Cercle Brugge 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charleroi 43% | Cercle Brugge 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charleroi 1.71 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charleroi attack 1.178 / defence 1.033 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.966 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.583 / away 1.267. Data: 36 Charleroi games / 36 Cercle Brugge games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 28%. Fair-value odds: Charleroi 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | Cercle Brugge 3.57. Charleroi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Charleroi 60% | Cercle Brugge 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade du Pays de Charleroi • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charleroi 48% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Charleroi 1.71 / Cercle Brugge 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Charleroi attack 1.178 / def 1.033 | Cercle Brugge attack 0.966 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.583 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Charleroi xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Cercle Brugge xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kick off?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge kicked off at 16:15 on Saturday 19 September 2026 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What was the final score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Charleroi 3 - 2 Cercle Brugge.
Where is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Pays de Charleroi.
What competition is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge part of?
Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our statistical model gives Charleroi a 48% chance of winning, Cercle Brugge a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Charleroi and Cercle Brugge will score (BTTS).
Will Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
Record (9 meetings): Charleroi 3W | Draws 2 | Cercle Brugge 4W.
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in?
Charleroi (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Cercle Brugge (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Charleroi's attack rating (1.18) and Cercle Brugge's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cercle Brugge's attack versus Charleroi's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.20
28%
3.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Charleroi xG
Total xG
2.97
1.27
Cercle Brugge xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.52
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
18%
5.51
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Charleroi and 1.27 for Cercle Brugge, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Charleroi have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 19W 6D 17L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Charleroi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cercle Brugge's form line: 10W 14D 18L from 42 games, 1.05 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Charleroi are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cercle Brugge.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charleroi have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Cercle Brugge have gone 7W 8D 6L from 21 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Charleroi are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Cercle Brugge are on 1.40 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charleroi
Early Season
Cercle Brugge
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charleroi and Cercle Brugge in coming into this match?
Charleroi have gone 19W 6D 17L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Cercle Brugge have gone 10W 14D 18L in their last 42 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charleroi at home or Cercle Brugge away?
Cercle Brugge's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charleroi at home: 1.33 PPG; Cercle Brugge away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Charleroi or Cercle Brugge been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charleroi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Cercle Brugge in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Charleroi's record when hosting Cercle Brugge specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Charleroi
2
Draws
4
Cercle Brugge
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charleroi and Cercle Brugge?
From 10 meetings on record, Charleroi have won 4, Cercle Brugge have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charleroi and Cercle Brugge last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charleroi 57%, Cercle Brugge 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Charleroi) and 43% (Cercle Brugge).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charleroi home games / Cercle Brugge away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charleroi play Cercle Brugge?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Charleroi's games and 57% of Cercle Brugge's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Charleroi vs Cercle Brugge usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Charleroi's recent games and 43% of Cercle Brugge's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charleroi and Cercle Brugge tend to score early?
Charleroi have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Cercle Brugge in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charleroi edge out Cercle Brugge 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charleroi beat Cercle Brugge 3-2 at Stade du Pays de Charleroi, Regular Season - 7, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charleroi 1.71 xG and Cercle Brugge 1.27 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charleroi beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charleroi attack 1.18 / defence 1.03 against Cercle Brugge attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charleroi 48% | Draw 24% | Cercle Brugge 28%, with Charleroi to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charleroi 43%, Cercle Brugge 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charleroi's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Cercle Brugge's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Charleroi arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Charleroi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Cercle Brugge (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.