Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Charleroi at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Jupiler Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Charleroi travel to Jan Breydel Stadion to take on Cercle Brugge. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cercle Brugge stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cercle Brugge, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cercle Brugge have posted 3W 2D 5L at Jan Breydel Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cercle Brugge are significantly better at Jan Breydel Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Jupiler Pro League games this season, Charleroi have recorded 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Charleroi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Jupiler Pro League this season, Charleroi have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Charleroi are 1.80 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 10 previous meetings, Cercle Brugge have won 4, Charleroi 4, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2026, ended 2–3 with Charleroi winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cercle Brugge trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Charleroi trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cercle Brugge 67% versus Charleroi 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cercle Brugge 61% | Charleroi 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cercle Brugge 1.16 xG and Charleroi 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cercle Brugge attack 0.789 / defence 1.214 | Charleroi attack 0.855 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.803 / away 1.370. Cercle Brugge's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 40 Cercle Brugge games / 40 Charleroi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 31% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 43%. Fair-value odds: Cercle Brugge 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Charleroi 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charleroi are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charleroi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Cercle Brugge 60% | Charleroi 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jan Breydel Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cercle Brugge 31% | Draw 26% | Charleroi 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Cercle Brugge 1.16 / Charleroi 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Cercle Brugge attack 0.789 / def 1.214 | Charleroi attack 0.855 / def 0.817 | league avg home 1.803 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Charleroi (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cercle Brugge xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Charleroi xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi kick off?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Jan Breydel Stadion.
Where is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi being played?
The match is being played at Jan Breydel Stadion.
What competition is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi part of?
Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our statistical model gives Cercle Brugge a 31% chance of winning, Charleroi a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Charleroi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cercle Brugge and Charleroi will score (BTTS).
Will Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
Record (10 meetings): Cercle Brugge 4W | Draws 2 | Charleroi 4W.
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in?
Cercle Brugge (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Charleroi (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cercle Brugge's attack rating (0.79) and Charleroi's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.16 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Charleroi's attack versus Cercle Brugge's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charleroi Win
31%
3.25
26%
3.81
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cercle Brugge xG
Total xG
2.58
1.42
Charleroi xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
31%
3.19
Win to Nil
7%
13.47
13%
7.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.5 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 7.2 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.42 for Charleroi, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cercle Brugge's recent record stands at 11W 14D 21L from 46 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Cercle Brugge is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charleroi, meanwhile, have gone 22W 6D 18L across 46 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Charleroi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Charleroi by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cercle Brugge heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cercle Brugge have managed 4W 6D 13L from 23 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Charleroi's away record stands at 12W 2D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charleroi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cercle Brugge are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Charleroi are on 1.46 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cercle Brugge have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 46 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cercle Brugge
Blended
Charleroi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cercle Brugge and Charleroi in coming into this match?
Cercle Brugge have gone 11W 14D 21L in their last 46 games (1.02 PPG), while Charleroi have gone 22W 6D 18L in their last 46 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cercle Brugge at home or Charleroi away?
Charleroi's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cercle Brugge at home: 0.78 PPG; Charleroi away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Cercle Brugge or Charleroi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cercle Brugge have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Charleroi in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Charleroi won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cercle Brugge's record when hosting Charleroi specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cercle Brugge
2
Draws
4
Charleroi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cercle Brugge and Charleroi?
From 10 meetings on record, Cercle Brugge have won 4, Charleroi have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cercle Brugge and Charleroi last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when Charleroi 3-2 Cercle Brugge.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cercle Brugge are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charleroi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cercle Brugge 74%, Charleroi 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Cercle Brugge) and 39% (Charleroi). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Charleroi in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cercle Brugge home games / Charleroi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cercle Brugge play Charleroi?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cercle Brugge's games and 39% of Charleroi's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cercle Brugge vs Charleroi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Cercle Brugge's matches and 39% of Charleroi's.
Do Cercle Brugge and Charleroi tend to score early?
Cercle Brugge have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Charleroi in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.