Anderlecht 6-0 Gent – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Anderlecht at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Anderlecht vs Gent fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Jupiler Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Anderlecht welcome Gent to Lotto Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 24 November 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Anderlecht stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Jupiler Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Anderlecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Anderlecht's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Lotto Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lotto Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Anderlecht are significantly better at Lotto Park than their overall form suggests.
Gent — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Jupiler Pro League fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gent, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gent have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Anderlecht) versus 1.60 (Gent). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Anderlecht have won 1, Gent 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Anderlecht winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Anderlecht trading profile (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Gent trading profile (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Anderlecht 63% and Gent 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Anderlecht 59% | Gent 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Anderlecht 1.19 xG and Gent 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Anderlecht attack 0.965 / defence 0.892 | Gent attack 0.951 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 0.998. Gent's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Anderlecht games / 44 Gent games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Anderlecht 40% | Draw 38% | Gent 22%. Fair-value odds: Anderlecht 2.50 | Draw 2.63 | Gent 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Anderlecht at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Anderlecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Anderlecht 30% | Gent 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Anderlecht vs Gent | Competition: Jupiler Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Anderlecht 40% | Draw 38% | Gent 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 44% | xG Anderlecht 1.19 / Gent 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Anderlecht attack 0.965 / def 0.892 | Gent attack 0.951 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.680 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: Anderlecht (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Anderlecht xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Gent xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Anderlecht vs Gent kick off?
Anderlecht vs Gent kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in Anderlecht vs Gent?
Anderlecht 6 - 0 Gent.
Where is Anderlecht vs Gent being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is Anderlecht vs Gent part of?
Anderlecht vs Gent is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Jupiler Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Anderlecht vs Gent?
Our statistical model gives Anderlecht a 40% chance of winning, Gent a 22% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Anderlecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Anderlecht vs Gent?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Anderlecht and Gent will score (BTTS).
Will Anderlecht vs Gent have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Gent?
Record (2 meetings): Anderlecht 1W | Draws 1 | Gent 0W.
What form are Anderlecht and Gent in?
Anderlecht (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Gent (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Anderlecht vs Gent?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Anderlecht's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Gent's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Gent's attack versus Anderlecht's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Anderlecht Win
40%
2.51
38%
2.64
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Anderlecht xG
Total xG
2.03
0.85
Gent xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
17%
5.85
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Anderlecht vs Gent?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Anderlecht and Gent expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Anderlecht and 0.85 for Gent, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Anderlecht vs Gent?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Anderlecht come into this having played 54 games, going 28W 16D 10L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-W. The sample for Anderlecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gent sit at 1.72 PPG from 54 outings (26W 15D 13L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Gent is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Anderlecht on 1.85 PPG, Gent on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Anderlecht's home form reads 18W 6D 3L across 27 games on their own ground, a 2.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Gent have taken 1.52 points per game from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Anderlecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Anderlecht are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Gent are on 1.87 scored and 1.07 conceded. Gent's attacking output running into Anderlecht's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Anderlecht have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Jupiler Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Anderlecht
Blended
Gent
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Anderlecht and Gent in coming into this match?
Anderlecht have gone 28W 16D 10L in their last 54 games (1.85 PPG), while Gent have gone 26W 15D 13L in their last 54 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Anderlecht at home or Gent away?
Anderlecht's home record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Anderlecht at home: 2.22 PPG; Gent away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Anderlecht or Gent been keeping clean sheets recently?
Anderlecht have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Gent in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Anderlecht and Gent runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Jupiler Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Nov 2024, when Anderlecht won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Anderlecht's record when hosting Gent specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Anderlecht
2
Draws
2
Gent
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Anderlecht and Gent?
From 10 meetings on record, Anderlecht have won 6, Gent have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Anderlecht and Gent last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Gent 1-1 Anderlecht.
Who has won more matches between Anderlecht and Gent?
Anderlecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Anderlecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gent are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Anderlecht 52%, Gent 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Anderlecht) and 41% (Gent).
On the defensive side: Anderlecht keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Gent in 33%; Gent in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Anderlecht home games / Gent away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Anderlecht play Gent?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Anderlecht's recent matches and 52% of Gent's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Anderlecht vs Gent usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Anderlecht's recent games and 41% of Gent's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Anderlecht and Gent tend to score early?
Anderlecht have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Gent in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Anderlecht run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Gent.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Anderlecht beat Gent 6-0 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 15, in the Jupiler Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Anderlecht 1.19 xG and Gent 0.85 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Anderlecht beat their projection by 4.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gent landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Anderlecht attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Gent attack 0.95 / defence 0.73, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Anderlecht 40% | Draw 38% | Gent 22%, with Anderlecht to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Anderlecht 59%, Gent 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Anderlecht's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Gent's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Anderlecht 1.85 PPG, Gent 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Anderlecht win broke the near-deadlock. Anderlecht (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Gent (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.