Zulte Waregem 3-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Zulte Waregem (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Zulte Waregem face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 23 as Zulte Waregem welcome KRC Genk II to Elindus Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Elindus Arena, Zulte Waregem have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KRC Genk II stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 0W 2D 8L from 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Zulte Waregem are in the better shape of the two on current Challenger Pro League data — 2.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Zulte Waregem register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, KRC Genk II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Zulte Waregem, 0 for KRC Genk II and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Zulte Waregem winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Zulte Waregem 60% and KRC Genk II 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Zulte Waregem 58% | KRC Genk II 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Zulte Waregem 2.69 xG and KRC Genk II 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Zulte Waregem attack 1.563 / defence 0.973 | KRC Genk II attack 0.774 / defence 1.278. League average goals — home 1.347 / away 1.361. Zulte Waregem carry an above-average attack strength of 1.563 — their λ of 2.69 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.278 — this is suppressing Zulte Waregem's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Zulte Waregem games / 52 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 72% | Draw 16% | KRC Genk II 12%. Fair-value odds: Zulte Waregem 1.39 | Draw 6.25 | KRC Genk II 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (72%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.69 / 1.02) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Zulte Waregem 70% | KRC Genk II 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Elindus Arena • Kick-off: Friday 21 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Zulte Waregem 72% | Draw 16% | KRC Genk II 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 60% | xG Zulte Waregem 2.69 / KRC Genk II 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Zulte Waregem attack 1.563 / def 0.973 | KRC Genk II attack 0.774 / def 1.278 | league avg home 1.347 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.69
Zulte Waregem xG
Expected Goals
1.02
KRC Genk II xG
60%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 February 2025 at Elindus Arena.
What was the final score in Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Zulte Waregem 3 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Elindus Arena.
What competition is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II part of?
Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Zulte Waregem a 72% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 12% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
Record (3 meetings): Zulte Waregem 2W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II in?
Zulte Waregem (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. KRC Genk II (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Zulte Waregem's attack at 1.56x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Zulte Waregem's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (8.8%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
72%
1.38
16%
6.23
12%
8.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.69
Zulte Waregem xG
Total xG
3.72
1.02
KRC Genk II xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.23
16%
Draw
8.61
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
7%
14.76
Win to Nil
26%
3.85
1%
127.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.69 expected goals for Zulte Waregem and 1.02 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Zulte Waregem's recent record stands at 29W 12D 11L from 52 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 27L across 52 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Zulte Waregem by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Zulte Waregem have managed 12W 6D 7L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 4W 6D 15L across 25 trips, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Zulte Waregem come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Zulte Waregem are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.38 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 67%.
Last 52 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Zulte Waregem
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Zulte Waregem have gone 29W 12D 11L in their last 52 games (1.90 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 13W 12D 27L in their last 52 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Zulte Waregem at home or KRC Genk II away?
Zulte Waregem's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Zulte Waregem at home: 1.68 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Zulte Waregem have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Zulte Waregem's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Zulte Waregem
1
Draws
0
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
From 4 meetings on record, Zulte Waregem have won 3, KRC Genk II have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2025, when Zulte Waregem 3-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Zulte Waregem 60%, KRC Genk II 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 52% for Zulte Waregem and 68% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Zulte Waregem have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Zulte Waregem home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Zulte Waregem play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Zulte Waregem's games and 68% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Zulte Waregem vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Zulte Waregem's matches and 68% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Zulte Waregem and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Zulte Waregem have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zulte Waregem cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat KRC Genk II 3-1 at Elindus Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Zulte Waregem 2.69 xG and KRC Genk II 1.02 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Zulte Waregem attack 1.56 / defence 0.97 against KRC Genk II attack 0.77 / defence 1.28, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Zulte Waregem 72% | Draw 16% | KRC Genk II 12%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Zulte Waregem 58%, KRC Genk II 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Zulte Waregem arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.