SK Beveren 3-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Beveren face Francs Borains.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SK Beveren host Francs Borains at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
SK Beveren — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, SK Beveren have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — SK Beveren are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 9 matches, Francs Borains stand at 3W 1D 5L — 1.11 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.56 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings (33%). Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Francs Borains's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 3L across their last 4 road games (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SK Beveren 1.20 PPG, Francs Borains 1.11 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (last 9 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (last 9 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 33% of SK Beveren's games and 33% of Francs Borains's. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 44% | Francs Borains 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.39 xG and Francs Borains 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.933 / defence 1.118 | Francs Borains attack 0.758 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.329. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Beveren's projected output up. Francs Borains's attack rating of 0.758 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.13. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 31 games and Francs Borains's last 9.
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 30%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.33 | Draw 3.76 | Francs Borains 3.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — low conviction — though recent form (SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Francs Borains's last 4 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 60% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 50% (last 4 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 10 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG SK Beveren 1.39 / Francs Borains 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 0.933 / def 1.118 | Francs Borains attack 0.758 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Francs Borains xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SK Beveren vs Francs Borains FAQs
What time does SK Beveren vs Francs Borains kick off?
SK Beveren vs Francs Borains kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
SK Beveren 3 - 0 Francs Borains.
Where is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs Francs Borains part of?
SK Beveren vs Francs Borains is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 10) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 43% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both SK Beveren and Francs Borains will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SK Beveren vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SK Beveren's attack rating (0.93) and Francs Borains's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SK Beveren's last 31 games and Francs Borains's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.76
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.51
1.13
Francs Borains xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
8%
13.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SK Beveren vs Francs Borains Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.13 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs Francs Borains?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 9 outings, SK Beveren have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — D-L-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Francs Borains's form line: 3W 1D 5L from 9 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.00 PPG, Francs Borains on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, SK Beveren have posted 1.00 PPG from their last 4 home games (1W 1D 2L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 1W 0D 3L from their last 4 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
SK Beveren (Home) vs Francs Borains (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SK Beveren
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ SK Beveren vs Francs Borains Form FAQs
What form are SK Beveren and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 3W 1D 5L in their last 9 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or Francs Borains away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.00 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.75 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 15 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SK Beveren have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Nov 2024, when SK Beveren won SK Beveren 4-0 Francs Borains.
SK Beveren's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
SK Beveren
1
Draws
1
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ SK Beveren vs Francs Borains H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, SK Beveren have won 4, Francs Borains have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and Francs Borains last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2026: Francs Borains 0-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and Francs Borains?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 50%, Francs Borains 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for SK Beveren and 75% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SK Beveren vs Francs Borains Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SK Beveren and Francs Borains matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 50% of Francs Borains's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SK Beveren and Francs Borains matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of SK Beveren's matches and 75% of Francs Borains's.
Do SK Beveren and Francs Borains matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of SK Beveren's recent matches and 75% of Francs Borains's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SK Beveren run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Francs Borains.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat Francs Borains 3-0 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.39 xG and Francs Borains 1.13 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Francs Borains landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 0.93 / defence 1.12 against Francs Borains attack 0.76 / defence 1.27, drawn from 31/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 43% | Draw 27% | Francs Borains 30%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 44%, Francs Borains 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Francs Borains's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.00 PPG, Francs Borains 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Francs Borains (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.