Lommel United 1-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lommel United host Zulte Waregem at Soeverein Stadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 October 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lommel United — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Lommel United have posted 8W 0D 2L at Soeverein Stadion — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Soeverein Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Zulte Waregem have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lommel United at 2.10 PPG versus Zulte Waregem's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Lommel United in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Zulte Waregem in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lommel United 51% versus Zulte Waregem 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lommel United 58% | Zulte Waregem 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lommel United 1.18 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lommel United attack 1.042 / defence 0.670 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.458 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.369. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.458 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Lommel United's defence rating of 0.670 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 Lommel United games / 9 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lommel United 33% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 40%. Fair-value odds: Lommel United 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Zulte Waregem 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zulte Waregem are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zulte Waregem offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.5 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Lommel United 30% | Zulte Waregem 70%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Soeverein Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 27 Oct 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lommel United 33% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Lommel United 1.18 / Zulte Waregem 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Lommel United attack 1.042 / def 0.670 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.458 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Lommel United xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Zulte Waregem xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 October 2023 at Soeverein Stadion.
What was the final score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United 1 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Soeverein Stadion.
What competition is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem part of?
Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives Lommel United a 33% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lommel United and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in?
Lommel United (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lommel United's attack rating (1.04) and Zulte Waregem's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus Lommel United's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
33%
3.04
27%
3.73
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Lommel United xG
Total xG
2.52
1.34
Zulte Waregem xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
12%
8.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 10.8 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Lommel United and 1.34 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lommel United's recent record stands at 22W 3D 16L from 41 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 20L across 41 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lommel United by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Zulte Waregem heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lommel United have managed 12W 1D 7L from 20 games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Zulte Waregem's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lommel United come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lommel United are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.63 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Zulte Waregem in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lommel United
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lommel United and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
Lommel United have gone 22W 3D 16L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 11W 10D 20L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lommel United at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Lommel United's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lommel United at home: 1.85 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Lommel United or Zulte Waregem been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lommel United have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Zulte Waregem in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Feb 2024, when Lommel United won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lommel United's record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lommel United
2
Draws
1
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
From 6 meetings on record, Lommel United have won 3, Zulte Waregem have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lommel United and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Zulte Waregem 0-1 Lommel United.
Who has won more matches between Lommel United and Zulte Waregem?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lommel United see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lommel United 45%, Zulte Waregem 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Lommel United) and 65% (Zulte Waregem). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lommel United home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lommel United play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 45% of Lommel United's games and 65% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lommel United vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Lommel United's matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do Lommel United and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
Lommel United have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lommel United and Zulte Waregem share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lommel United and Zulte Waregem finished level at 1-1 at Soeverein Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lommel United 1.18 xG and Zulte Waregem 1.34 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lommel United attack 1.04 / defence 0.67 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.46 / defence 0.96, drawn from 31/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lommel United 33% | Draw 27% | Zulte Waregem 40%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lommel United 58%, Zulte Waregem 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lommel United's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lommel United arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.