KRC Genk II 1-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beerschot VA make the trip to De Leunen to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KRC Genk II have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at De Leunen this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beerschot VA (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Beerschot VA have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Beerschot VA have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 0.60 PPG clear of KRC Genk II in recent Challenger Pro League fixtures (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — KRC Genk II lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2023, ended 2–3 with Beerschot VA winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 58% versus Beerschot VA 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 58% | Beerschot VA 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.20 xG and Beerschot VA 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.985 / defence 1.273 | Beerschot VA attack 1.234 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.413. Beerschot VA have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 2.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 29 KRC Genk II games / 28 Beerschot VA games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 60%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 5.00 | Draw 5.00 | Beerschot VA 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: KRC Genk II 60% | Beerschot VA 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Oct 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG KRC Genk II 1.20 / Beerschot VA 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.985 / def 1.273 | Beerschot VA attack 1.234 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Beerschot VA xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 7 October 2023 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
KRC Genk II 1 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA part of?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 20% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA will score (BTTS).
Will KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
Record (2 meetings): KRC Genk II 0W | Draws 0 | Beerschot VA 2W.
What form are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA in?
KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-W. Beerschot VA (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 0.98x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (1.23x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
20%
5.08
20%
5.05
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.42
2.22
Beerschot VA xG
5.08
20%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
11%
9.22
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
2%
46.83
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 2.22 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 18W 6D 14L across 38 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Beerschot VA, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 3W 5D 10L from 18 games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 10W 1D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.39 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 18W 6D 14L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.78 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 6 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
6
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
From 6 meetings on record, KRC Genk II have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA last play each other?
They last met on 6 March 2026, when Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 50%, Beerschot VA 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for KRC Genk II and 72% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 39% of games; Beerschot VA in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KRC Genk II play Beerschot VA?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of KRC Genk II's games and 61% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of KRC Genk II's matches and 72% of Beerschot VA's.
Do KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA tend to score early?
KRC Genk II have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Beerschot VA in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out KRC Genk II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat KRC Genk II 1-2 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.20 xG and Beerschot VA 2.22 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.98 / defence 1.27 against Beerschot VA attack 1.23 / defence 0.94, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 60%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 58%, Beerschot VA 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.