Deinze 3-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deinze vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Deinze welcome KRC Genk II to Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League (matchday 9). Kick-off is Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Deinze — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Deinze's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 2D 2L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, KRC Genk II stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KRC Genk II away from home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Deinze carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.10. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Deinze's games and 60% of KRC Genk II's (from Deinze's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Deinze have won 2, KRC Genk II 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 May 2023, ended Deinze 2–0 KRC Genk II — a Deinze win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 58% versus KRC Genk II 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 58% | KRC Genk II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.35 xG and KRC Genk II 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.043 / defence 0.730 | KRC Genk II attack 1.258 / defence 1.100. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.420. KRC Genk II have an above-average attack rating of 1.258, which lifts their away xG to 1.30. Deinze have a tight defence (rating 0.730), which is pulling KRC Genk II's projected output down. Data: built from Deinze's last 30 games and KRC Genk II's last 30.
Result probabilities: Deinze 38% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 36%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.63 | Draw 3.84 | KRC Genk II 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deinze as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Deinze's last 10 home games and KRC Genk II's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches point the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Deinze 60% (last 10 home games) | KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 9 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Friday 20 October 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 38% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Deinze 1.35 / KRC Genk II 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.043 / def 0.730 | KRC Genk II attack 1.258 / def 1.100 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.420 • Poisson stance: Deinze (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.30
KRC Genk II xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Deinze vs KRC Genk II FAQs
What time does Deinze vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Deinze vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 20 October 2023 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Deinze 3 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Deinze vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs KRC Genk II part of?
Deinze vs KRC Genk II is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 9) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 38% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Deinze and KRC Genk II will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Deinze vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.04) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Deinze's last 30 games and KRC Genk II's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
38%
2.63
26%
3.84
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.66
1.30
KRC Genk II xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Deinze vs KRC Genk II Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Deinze and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Deinze and 1.30 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 19W 5D 16L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
KRC Genk II's form line: 9W 10D 21L from 40 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Deinze are the form team by 0.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KRC Genk II.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 20 home games (12W 3D 5L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 5W 5D 10L from their last 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deinze are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.27 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 60%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
Deinze (Home) vs KRC Genk II (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Deinze
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Deinze vs KRC Genk II Form FAQs
What form are Deinze and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 19W 5D 16L in their last 40 games (1.55 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 9W 10D 21L in their last 40 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or KRC Genk II away?
Deinze's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.95 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 19 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Deinze's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Deinze
1
Draws
2
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Deinze vs KRC Genk II H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and KRC Genk II?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Deinze have won 4, KRC Genk II have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Deinze and KRC Genk II last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2024: Deinze 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and KRC Genk II?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 70%, KRC Genk II at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Deinze and 60% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Deinze vs KRC Genk II Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Deinze and KRC Genk II matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Deinze's games and 65% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Deinze and KRC Genk II matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Deinze's matches and 60% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Deinze and KRC Genk II matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Deinze's recent matches and 75% of KRC Genk II's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Deinze edge out KRC Genk II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat KRC Genk II 3-2 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.35 xG and KRC Genk II 1.30 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Deinze beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.04 / defence 0.73 against KRC Genk II attack 1.26 / defence 1.10, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 38% | Draw 26% | KRC Genk II 36%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 58%, KRC Genk II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.