K. Lierse S.K. 3-1 Club Brugge II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Club Brugge II at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Club Brugge II travel to Herman Vanderpoortenstadion to take on K. Lierse S.K.. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 April 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, K. Lierse S.K. stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Club Brugge II have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Club Brugge II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Club Brugge II have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: K. Lierse S.K. 1.30 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for K. Lierse S.K., 3 for Club Brugge II and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with Club Brugge II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
K. Lierse S.K. in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
Club Brugge II in-play tendencies (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 64% and Club Brugge II 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 73% | Club Brugge II 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.83 xG and Club Brugge II 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.200 / defence 1.206 | Club Brugge II attack 1.112 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 1.366. Data: 49 K. Lierse S.K. games / 49 Club Brugge II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 39% | Draw 22% | Club Brugge II 39%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | Club Brugge II 2.56. The draw (22%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.66. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.66 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.83 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 22% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 39% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.66 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | Club Brugge II 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 39% | Draw 22% | Club Brugge II 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 70% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.83 / Club Brugge II 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.200 / def 1.206 | Club Brugge II attack 1.112 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.334 / away 1.366 • Poisson stance: Draw (22%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.83
Club Brugge II xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II?
K. Lierse S.K. 3 - 1 Club Brugge II.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 39% chance of winning, Club Brugge II a 39% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II?
Record (5 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 2W | Draws 0 | Club Brugge II 3W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Club Brugge II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 1.20x the league average against Club Brugge II's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Club Brugge II's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Club Brugge II Win
39%
2.56
22%
4.60
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.66
1.83
Club Brugge II xG
2.56
39%
Home win
4.60
22%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.39
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
16%
6.21
Win to Nil
6%
16.01
6%
15.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.83 for Club Brugge II, a combined total of 3.66.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
K. Lierse S.K.'s recent record stands at 23W 8D 28L from 59 games, a 1.31 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Club Brugge II, meanwhile, have gone 24W 11D 24L across 59 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Club Brugge II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.31 PPG, Club Brugge II on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, K. Lierse S.K. have managed 13W 2D 14L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Club Brugge II's away record stands at 11W 4D 14L across 29 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Club Brugge II are on 1.47 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 59 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Club Brugge II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 23W 8D 28L in their last 59 games (1.31 PPG), while Club Brugge II have gone 24W 11D 24L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Club Brugge II away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.41 PPG; Club Brugge II away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
K. Lierse S.K. have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting Club Brugge II specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
K. Lierse S.K.
0
Draws
5
Club Brugge II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II?
From 10 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 5, Club Brugge II have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 Club Brugge II.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — K. Lierse S.K. at 72%, Club Brugge II at 59%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for K. Lierse S.K. and 69% for Club Brugge II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge II in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Club Brugge II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Club Brugge II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 59% of Club Brugge II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Club Brugge II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 69% of Club Brugge II's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Club Brugge II tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Club Brugge II in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Club Brugge II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat Club Brugge II 3-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.83 xG and Club Brugge II 1.83 xG, a combined 3.66. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Club Brugge II landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.20 / defence 1.21 against Club Brugge II attack 1.11 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 39% | Draw 22% | Club Brugge II 39%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 73%, Club Brugge II 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Club Brugge II's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 PPG, Club Brugge II 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.