Dender 3-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Dender at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dender face Deinze.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Dender host Deinze at DENDER Football Complex in Challenger Pro League (matchday 28). Kick-off is Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dender stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dender at home: 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Across their last 10 games, Deinze have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Deinze have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Dender at 1.80 PPG versus Deinze's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Dender have won 2, Deinze 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Dender 1–1 Deinze — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Dender trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Deinze trading profile (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 58% versus Deinze 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 46% | Deinze 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.51 xG and Deinze 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 1.204 / defence 0.778 | Deinze attack 0.904 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.357. Dender have a tight defence (rating 0.778), which is pulling Deinze's projected output down. Data: built from Dender's last 49 games and Deinze's last 49.
Result probabilities: Dender 50% | Draw 26% | Deinze 24%. Fair-value odds: Dender 1.99 | Draw 3.86 | Deinze 4.19. Dender hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dender are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dender 50% (last 10 home games) | Deinze 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 28 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 50% | Draw 26% | Deinze 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dender 1.51 / Deinze 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 1.204 / def 0.778 | Deinze attack 0.904 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Dender (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Dender xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Deinze xG
48%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dender vs Deinze FAQs
What time does Dender vs Deinze kick off?
Dender vs Deinze kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Deinze?
Dender 3 - 0 Deinze.
Where is Dender vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Deinze part of?
Dender vs Deinze is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 28) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 50% chance of winning, Deinze a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dender and Deinze will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dender vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Dender's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Deinze's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Dender's last 49 games and Deinze's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
50%
1.99
26%
3.86
24%
4.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Dender xG
Total xG
2.47
0.95
Deinze xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
4.19
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
22%
4.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.18
5%
18.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 12.3 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dender vs Deinze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Dender and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Dender and 0.95 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Dender's recent record stands at 24W 15D 20L from 59 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-W in the last five.
Deinze, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 21L across 59 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dender on 1.47 PPG, Deinze on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Dender have managed 12W 6D 11L from their last 29 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Deinze's away record stands at 12W 3D 14L across their last 29 away games, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.56 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 61%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Deinze
Blended
Dender (Home) vs Deinze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dender
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Dender vs Deinze Form FAQs
What form are Dender and Deinze in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 24W 15D 20L in their last 59 games (1.47 PPG), while Deinze have gone 29W 9D 21L in their last 59 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Deinze away?
Dender's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.45 PPG; Deinze away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Dender or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Deinze in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Apr 2024, when Dender won Dender 3-0 Deinze.
Dender's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Dender
1
Draws
2
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Dender vs Deinze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Deinze?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Dender have won 3, Deinze have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Dender and Deinze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 April 2024: Dender 3-0 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Deinze?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 55%, Deinze 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Dender) and 48% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Deinze in 31%; Dender have failed to score in 28% of games; Deinze in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dender vs Deinze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dender and Deinze matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Dender's recent matches and 48% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dender and Deinze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Dender's recent games and 48% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Deinze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Dender's recent matches and 62% of Deinze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dender run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Deinze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dender beat Deinze 3-0 at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 28, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.51 xG and Deinze 0.95 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dender beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Deinze landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 1.20 / defence 0.78 against Deinze attack 0.90 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 50% | Draw 26% | Deinze 24%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 46%, Deinze 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Deinze's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.47 PPG, Deinze 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dender win broke the near-deadlock. Dender (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.