Deinze vs Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Patro Eisden at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deinze vs Patro Eisden encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Burg Van De Wielestadion plays host to Deinze versus Patro Eisden in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Current Form
Deinze's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Deinze have posted 5W 1D 4L at Burg Van De Wielestadion — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Deinze are significantly better at Burg Van De Wielestadion than their overall form suggests.
Patro Eisden have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Patro Eisden have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Patro Eisden arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.10) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Deinze have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Patro Eisden in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Deinze, 2 for Patro Eisden and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Oct 2024, ended 1–3 with Patro Eisden winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Deinze goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Patro Eisden goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 58% versus Patro Eisden 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 60% | Patro Eisden 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.06 xG and Patro Eisden 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 0.954 / defence 0.994 | Patro Eisden attack 1.138 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.395. Data: 44 Deinze games / 51 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 25% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 49%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 4.00 | Draw 3.85 | Patro Eisden 2.04. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 60% | Patro Eisden 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Burg Van De Wielestadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 25% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Deinze 1.06 / Patro Eisden 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 0.954 / def 0.994 | Patro Eisden attack 1.138 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Patro Eisden (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Patro Eisden xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Deinze vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Burg Van De Wielestadion.
Where is Deinze vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at Burg Van De Wielestadion.
What competition is Deinze vs Patro Eisden part of?
Deinze vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 25% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Patro Eisden the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Deinze and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Patro Eisden?
Record (5 meetings): Deinze 2W | Draws 1 | Patro Eisden 2W.
What form are Deinze and Patro Eisden in?
Deinze (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Patro Eisden (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Deinze's attack at 0.95x the league average against Patro Eisden's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Patro Eisden's attack (1.14x) against Deinze's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.58.
These ratings are built from 44/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Patro Eisden Win
25%
3.98
26%
3.87
49%
2.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.64
1.58
Patro Eisden xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.04
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
5%
19.26
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Deinze and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Deinze and 1.58 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Deinze come into this having played 48 games, going 23W 9D 16L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Patro Eisden sit at 1.69 PPG from 48 outings (22W 15D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Deinze against 1.69 for Patro Eisden. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Deinze's home form reads 12W 5D 6L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.78 PPG return.
Away from home, Patro Eisden have taken 1.61 points per game from 23 outings (9W 10D 4L).
Attack vs Defence
Deinze are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.58 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Patro Eisden in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 23W 9D 16L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 22W 15D 11L in their last 48 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Patro Eisden away?
Deinze's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.78 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Deinze or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 October 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won 0-4 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Deinze have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Patro Eisden — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Deinze
1
Draws
2
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Patro Eisden?
From 5 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Patro Eisden have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 4 October 2024, when Patro Eisden 3-1 Deinze.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 65%, Patro Eisden 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Deinze) and 35% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Patro Eisden in 56%; Patro Eisden in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Deinze's recent matches and 35% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deinze vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Deinze's recent games and 35% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deinze and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Deinze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Burg Van De Wielestadion, Regular Season - 22, as Deinze and Patro Eisden drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.06 xG and Patro Eisden 1.58 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Deinze fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Patro Eisden landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 0.95 / defence 0.99 against Patro Eisden attack 1.14 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 25% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 49%, with Patro Eisden to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 60%, Patro Eisden 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.62 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.78 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.