Deinze 0-3 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deinze vs Francs Borains encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 12 as Deinze welcome Francs Borains to Dakota Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deinze — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze at Dakota Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Francs Borains stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Francs Borains, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Francs Borains's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Deinze have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Deinze, 1 for Francs Borains and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 2–3 with Francs Borains winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Deinze in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Francs Borains in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Deinze 63% versus Francs Borains 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 61% | Francs Borains 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 2.27 xG and Francs Borains 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.127 / defence 0.880 | Francs Borains attack 0.849 / defence 1.428. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.419. Francs Borains bring a strong defensive rating of 1.428 — this is suppressing Deinze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Deinze games / 41 Francs Borains games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 64% | Draw 19% | Francs Borains 16%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Francs Borains 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Deinze (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.33 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 80% | Francs Borains 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Francs Borains | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 64% | Draw 19% | Francs Borains 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 59% | xG Deinze 2.27 / Francs Borains 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.127 / def 0.880 | Francs Borains attack 0.849 / def 1.428 | league avg home 1.408 / away 1.419 • Poisson stance: Deinze (64%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.27
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Francs Borains xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Francs Borains kick off?
Deinze vs Francs Borains kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Deinze 0 - 3 Francs Borains.
Where is Deinze vs Francs Borains being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Francs Borains part of?
Deinze vs Francs Borains is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 64% chance of winning, Francs Borains a 16% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deinze and Francs Borains will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Francs Borains have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Francs Borains?
Record (2 meetings): Deinze 1W | Draws 0 | Francs Borains 1W.
What form are Deinze and Francs Borains in?
Deinze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Francs Borains (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deinze's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Francs Borains's defensive record (1.43x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.27. The same calculation in reverse, Francs Borains's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
64%
1.55
19%
5.25
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.27
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.33
1.06
Francs Borains xG
1.55
64%
Home win
5.25
19%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
10%
9.63
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
58.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Deinze and Francs Borains expected to score?
The model projects 2.27 expected goals for Deinze and 1.06 for Francs Borains, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Francs Borains?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 21W 9D 11L record — L-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Francs Borains's form line: 11W 6D 24L from 41 games, 0.95 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Francs Borains is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Deinze are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Francs Borains.
Venue Form
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.90 PPG from 20 outings (11W 5D 4L).
On the road, Francs Borains have gone 5W 3D 12L from 20 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deinze are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Francs Borains are on 1.15 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Francs Borains
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Francs Borains in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 21W 9D 11L in their last 41 games (1.76 PPG), while Francs Borains have gone 11W 6D 24L in their last 41 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Francs Borains away?
Deinze's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.90 PPG; Francs Borains away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Deinze or Francs Borains been keeping clean sheets recently?
Deinze have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Francs Borains in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Francs Borains have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Francs Borains won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Francs Borains specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Deinze
0
Draws
2
Francs Borains
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Francs Borains?
From 3 meetings on record, Deinze have won 1, Francs Borains have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Francs Borains last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Deinze 0-3 Francs Borains.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Francs Borains?
Francs Borains have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deinze 70%, Francs Borains 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Deinze and 70% for Francs Borains. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Francs Borains away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Francs Borains?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Deinze's games and 55% of Francs Borains's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs Francs Borains usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Deinze's matches and 70% of Francs Borains's.
Do Deinze and Francs Borains tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Francs Borains in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Francs Borains run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Deinze.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains beat Deinze 0-3 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 2.27 xG and Francs Borains 1.06 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Deinze fell 2.3 short of their projected output. Francs Borains outscored their 1.06 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.13 / defence 0.88 against Francs Borains attack 0.85 / defence 1.43, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 64% | Draw 19% | Francs Borains 16%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Francs Borains win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 61%, Francs Borains 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Francs Borains's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Francs Borains winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.