WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 13 September 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 0D 6L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for WSG Wattens, 1.20 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 9 meetings, TSV Hartberg have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to WSG Wattens's 2, with 1 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. TSV Hartberg have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus TSV Hartberg 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 51% | TSV Hartberg 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.03 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.823 / defence 1.132 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.971 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.224. Data: 27 WSG Wattens games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 32% | TSV Hartberg 42%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | TSV Hartberg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 32% | TSV Hartberg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG WSG Wattens 1.03 / TSV Hartberg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.823 / def 1.132 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.971 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 13 September 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 2 - 2 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 26% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
Record (9 meetings): WSG Wattens 2W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 6W.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.97x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
26%
3.78
32%
3.16
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.37
1.35
TSV Hartberg xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
7%
14.54
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.35 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.27 PPG on a 12W 11D 14L record — D-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 12W 12D 13L from 37 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.30 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.50 PPG from 18 outings (7W 6D 5L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 7D 4L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 games (1.27 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 12D 13L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.50 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 13 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2026, when WSG Wattens 2-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 67%, TSV Hartberg 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 39% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 39%; TSV Hartberg in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of WSG Wattens's games and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 39% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 6, as WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.03 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.35 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.82 / defence 1.13 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.97 / defence 0.81, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 32% | TSV Hartberg 42%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 51%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.27 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.