WSG Wattens 5-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and SCR Altach meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 November 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
SCR Altach arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 56% versus SCR Altach 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 53% | SCR Altach 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.817 / defence 1.347 | SCR Altach attack 0.696 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.357. Data: 35 WSG Wattens games / 35 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 31% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 39%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | SCR Altach 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SCR Altach at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: WSG Wattens 70% | SCR Altach 30%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Nov 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 31% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG WSG Wattens 1.10 / SCR Altach 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.817 / def 1.347 | SCR Altach attack 0.696 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.27
SCR Altach xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kick off?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
WSG Wattens 5 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach part of?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 31% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both WSG Wattens and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.82) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.70x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
31%
3.25
30%
3.31
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.37
1.27
SCR Altach xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
13%
7.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.2 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.27 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 11W 10D 24L from 45 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 9W 14D 22L across 45 games — 0.91 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.91 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 4W 7D 11L from 22 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 4W 8D 10L across 22 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.84 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 10D 24L in their last 45 games (0.96 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 9W 14D 22L in their last 45 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or SCR Altach away?
SCR Altach's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.86 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
4
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 3, SCR Altach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 59%, SCR Altach 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 54% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 32% of games; SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 41% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 54% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and SCR Altach tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant WSG Wattens run riot with a 5-1 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat SCR Altach 5-1 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.10 xG and SCR Altach 1.27 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.82 / defence 1.35 against SCR Altach attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 31% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 39%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 53%, SCR Altach 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 0.96 PPG, SCR Altach 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.