WSG Wattens 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (72%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as WSG Wattens face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Red Bull Salzburg travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens in Bundesliga (matchday 13). The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, WSG Wattens stand at 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
WSG Wattens's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 6W 4D 0L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Red Bull Salzburg's 2.00 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of WSG Wattens's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of WSG Wattens's games and 60% of Red Bull Salzburg's (from WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the home advantage, Red Bull Salzburg have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for WSG Wattens.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 6 Aug 2023, ended WSG Wattens 0–3 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 57% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 54% | Red Bull Salzburg 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: WSG Wattens surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Red Bull Salzburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.09 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.936 / defence 1.409 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.443 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.389. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack rating of 1.443, which lifts their away xG to 2.82. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.409 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Red Bull Salzburg's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 34 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 34.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 11% | Draw 16% | Red Bull Salzburg 72%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 8.95 | Draw 6.10 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.38. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (72%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.92. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.92 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.09 / 2.82) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
The Poisson model projects 3.92 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 70% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 11% | Draw 16% | Red Bull Salzburg 72% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.09 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.82 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.936 / def 1.409 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.443 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
2.82
Red Bull Salzburg xG
63%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 11% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 72% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 2.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 34 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 8.7%. Close behind: 1-3 (8.2%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
11%
8.95
16%
6.10
72%
1.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 3
8.2%
Away win
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.92
2.82
Red Bull Salzburg xG
8.95
11%
Home win
6.10
16%
Draw
1.38
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
6%
16.83
34%
2.98
Win to Nil
1%
150.65
24%
4.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.6 | 7.9 | 7.5 | 5.3 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 2.2 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 2.82 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.92.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 44 games, going 11W 10D 23L for 0.98 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.34 PPG from 44 outings (31W 10D 3L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of WSG Wattens — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 4W 7D 10L across their last 21 home games, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 2.62 points per game from their last 21 away games (17W 4D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.14 scored and 0.68 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
WSG Wattens (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 10D 23L in their last 44 games (0.98 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 31W 10D 3L in their last 44 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.90 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.62 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 16 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Dec 2021, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-0 WSG Wattens.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: WSG Wattens 0-3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 62%, Red Bull Salzburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (WSG Wattens) and 62% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 48%; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of WSG Wattens's games and 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of WSG Wattens's matches and 62% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do WSG Wattens and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 71% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.09 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.82 xG, a combined 3.92. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.94 / defence 1.41 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.44 / defence 0.97, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 11% | Draw 16% | Red Bull Salzburg 72%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 54%, Red Bull Salzburg 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.