TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 3D 4L at PROfertil ARENA — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
SCR Altach (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: TSV Hartberg 1W, SCR Altach 0W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 1–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 52% versus SCR Altach 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 62% | SCR Altach 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG and SCR Altach 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.020 / defence 1.355 | SCR Altach attack 0.852 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.528. Data: 30 TSV Hartberg games / 30 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 43%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | SCR Altach 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.76) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SCR Altach if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.18 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 50% | SCR Altach 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.42 / SCR Altach 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.020 / def 1.355 | SCR Altach attack 0.852 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.76
SCR Altach xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 28% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
Record (2 meetings): TSV Hartberg 1W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (1.02) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.85x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
28%
3.51
28%
3.55
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.18
1.76
SCR Altach xG
3.51
28%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
17%
5.84
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
5%
20.52
11%
9.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.3 | 6.5 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.76 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 40 games, going 12W 9D 19L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.98 PPG from 40 outings (9W 12D 19L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.98 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (4W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.95 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 9W 12D 19L in their last 40 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.10 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 4, SCR Altach have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, SCR Altach 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for TSV Hartberg and 60% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of TSV Hartberg's games and 50% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 60% of SCR Altach's.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at TSV Hartberg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 9, as TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG and SCR Altach 1.76 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. SCR Altach landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.02 / defence 1.35 against SCR Altach attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 28% | SCR Altach 43%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 62%, SCR Altach 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.12 PPG, SCR Altach 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.