Austria Vienna 0-0 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Vienna face Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 9). Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Austria Vienna at home: 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rapid Vienna away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.30 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) — Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Rapid Vienna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (last 40 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 65% and Rapid Vienna 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 72% | Rapid Vienna 55%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.960 / defence 0.987 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.173 / defence 0.973. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.471. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 30 games and Rapid Vienna's last 30.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 22% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 48%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 4.49 | Draw 3.40 | Rapid Vienna 2.07. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.82. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.82 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Austria Vienna's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 9 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 October 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 22% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.12 / Rapid Vienna 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.960 / def 0.987 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.173 / def 0.973 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.471 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Rapid Vienna xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Vienna 0 - 0 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 9) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 22% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (0.96) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (1.17x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 30 games and Rapid Vienna's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
22%
4.49
29%
3.40
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.82
1.70
Rapid Vienna xG
4.49
22%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
4%
24.70
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.3 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.70 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 13W 12D 15L from 40 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 16L across 40 games — 1.30 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.27 PPG for Austria Vienna against 1.30 for Rapid Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 8W 5D 6L from their last 19 home games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 6W 3D 10L across their last 19 away games, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.62 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 62%.
Last 40 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 13W 12D 15L in their last 40 games (1.27 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.53 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won Rapid Vienna 3-0 Austria Vienna on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
5
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 58%, Rapid Vienna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Austria Vienna and 58% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Austria Vienna's games and 58% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Austria Vienna's matches and 58% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 79% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Austria Vienna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna finished level at 0-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.12 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.70 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Rapid Vienna landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.96 / defence 0.99 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.17 / defence 0.97, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 22% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 48%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 72%, Rapid Vienna 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.27 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.